Counting The Cost Of Peace

In a revealing aside at the Sinn Fein Ardfheis over the weekend its chief negotiator, Mr Martin McGuinness, said the difficulties…

In a revealing aside at the Sinn Fein Ardfheis over the weekend its chief negotiator, Mr Martin McGuinness, said the difficulties facing unionists over the Belfast Agreement are a "hundred-fold" greater than those facing his party. As the referendum campaigns on the agreement enter their final phases, the real tests facing it are in the middle ground of unionism. This strand of opinion is particularly concerned by the concessions made to bring Sinn Fein on board, including prisoner releases, the prospect of power-sharing with Mr Gerry Adams and reform of the RUC. They were symbolised by the presence of the Balcombe Street prisoners at the ardfheis. News that Mr David Trimble has a real fight on his hands to win majority unionist support should temper the welcome for Sinn Fein's auspicious decisions to support the agreement and to take up its seats in the new Northern Assembly.

The prisoner release issue has emerged as arguably the strongest bone of contention in the agreement both North and South. Many citizens of this State, reading the grisly catalogue of activities attributed to the Balcombe group, will have been alerted to the profoundly important matters of principle involved. Television coverage of these images from the Sinn Fein gathering have had a big impact among Northern unionist voters. Similar issues are raised in a more immediate sense by the forthcoming trial of those who murdered Garda Jerry McCabe and the possibility, which the Government has denied, that they too could be released if convicted. The prospective release of hundreds of IRA prisoners from the Republic's jails under the agreement only reinforces the impression. The political lesson is clear: the balance of the agreement makes such unpalatable elements a necessary part of reaching a peaceful settlement of the conflict. These particular prisoners have gone back to jail voluntarily on the understanding that such a settlement is now possible and within grasp. There are similar traumas to be faced by all the other communities who gave up victims during the last three decades. The agreement as a whole must be seen by the majority as worth decisively more than its particular shortcomings if it is to be convincingly carried.

It is up to those who support the agreement to back up Mr Trimble's efforts to convince his followers that the prospect of peace is nevertheless worth such a price. He seems bound to raise again the question of whether Mr Adams's party, by virtue of its weekend decisions, has as yet earned the right to participate in government without arms decommissioning. Sinn Fein leaders would do well to provide him with whatever arguments they can in coming days rather than rub in what middle-ground unionism regards as the triumphalist impression given at the ardfheis. The Secretary of State, Dr Mo Mowlam, and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, showed yesterday that they are sensitive to such criticisms. They too will need to underpin Mr Trimble's arguments in coming days, just as Mr Blair did in his radio discussion with Northern Ireland listeners yesterday. Increasingly it can be seen that the agreement contains its own dynamic of political solidarity among those who have lent it their support. They will have to work together into the indefinite future if it is carried. Now is the time for them to combine to ensure that it is.