TWO PARTICULARLY striking stories about who and where we are as a people emerge from the impressively speedy first results of the 2011 census. Both, against the background of significant population growth to over 4.5 million, tell stories of internal and external migration that eloquently reflect dimensions of the Celtic Tiger in its excess and demise.
Booming Laois, its population up by a staggering one-fifth since 2006, grew at twice the rate of the rest of Leinster, and three times that of Dublin, to join the ranks of the commuter counties. One of its electoral districts Portlaoise Rural grew by a third, mirroring the sprawl of the new housing outside urban areas. Laois, not surprisingly, recorded the largest rise in new homes in the State at 21 per cent. The populations of Fingal, Longford, Meath, and Kildare also surged forward, each by 13 per cent, continuing the relentless suburbanisation that had emerged so strongly in the previous decade.
And, reflecting the downturn, the census provides evidence of the rise in net outward migration, although not at the levels expected. Apocryphal stories of the mass emigration of the workers who came here in the good years were clearly exaggerated. Ireland continued to experience strong net inward migration for the first half of the 2006-2010 period, followed by a shift to net outward migration over the second half as the recession bit.
The reality that nearly twice as many men as women emigrated – a function probably of the collapse in the construction industry – also appears to have shifted the male-female balance since the last census so that women are now in a majority (by a ratio of 1,000 to 981).
The census will have strong policy implications in a wide range of areas, through transport planning for ever-more-spread-out commuters, to education and health provision for our youthful expanding population, and not least to housing. The report finds that the housing stock increased since 2006 at 1½ times the rate of population increase and that some 15 per cent of properties are currently vacant (in Leitrim nearly one in three homes is vacant).
The census also facilitates the Government’s professed wish to reduce the size of the Dáil. It will be able to cut numbers of TDs by between six and 13 without the necessity for a constitutional referendum to remove the requirement for one TD per 30,000 of the population. But the work of the Boundary Commission will be a difficult balancing act, not least because the Minister has ruled out large six-seat constituencies. Politically awkward decisions will be required which will mean lesser representation for inner-city and western constituencies while the midlands and suburban Dubliners gain.
Taking the long view it should also be noted that the strong growth of the population, with the notable exceptions of the declining cities of Cork and, most dramatically, Limerick, still leaves the population of the 26 counties roughly two-thirds of that 170 years ago. Munster’s population, at 1.2 million, is still only half its level then, while Connacht and the three counties of Ulster have just over a third of their old numbers.