The Coalition Government is under severe and mounting pressure as a new Dáil session opens at Leinster House today and offers the Opposition parties their first real opportunity in six years to present themselves as an alternative government.
Fianna Fáil is in particular disarray because of the disgraceful behaviour of a number of its backbenchers. But increasing public disillusionment with the quality of leadership offered by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, could be of greater consequence. The Progressive Democrats have remained relatively unscathed but the growing economic and social difficulties facing the Government may change that situation.
Three months ago, the Coalition Government sent the Dáil into recess and hoped that a long, balmy summer and an upturn in the economy would encourage the electorate to forget, if not to forgive, the broken promises and the misjudgments it had made. It was expecting far too much. Last week's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll showed public support for Fianna Fáil at a 20-year low. More than two-thirds of those surveyed expressed dissatisfaction with the Coalition Government. And Mr Ahern's own satisfaction rating was shown to have dropped by 15 points within the past year.
The Taoiseach made reference yesterday to some of the internal difficulties buffeting Fianna Fáil when he told journalists that Mr G. V. Wright, the North Dublin TD involved in a drink driving accident, had telephoned him to apologise for his conduct. He would, Mr Ahern said, face the full rigours of the law. The same may hold true for Mr Michael Collins, the Limerick West TD who resigned the Fianna Fáil whip last week after he was named as a tax defaulter. The Opposition parties will be anxious to establish why the Taoiseach took no action some months ago when he first became aware of Mr Collins's situation.
No obvious mechanisms are available to revitalise the fortunes of the Government. International economic recovery is still an uncertain affair. In the meantime, difficult decisions have to be made in relation to Government spending, particularly in the areas of health and education. But the key to future prosperity and growth will depend on the amount of capital spending devoted to modernising our infrastructure and transport systems in the short term.
Balancing those demands while, at the same time, coping with rising levels of unemployment will test this Government. The challenge to Fine Gael and the Labour Party is to provide a credible alternative to a Fianna Fáil-led Government that appears to have run out of discipline and ideas. For the first time in six years, their combined strength in the polls is greater than Fianna Fáil's. Rugged positions are being adopted, such as Mr Enda Kenny's insistence that benchmarking should not be paid in the absence of modernisation and increased productivity while Mr Pat Rabbitte has begun to broaden Labour's appeal to the consumer. Greater coherence and vigour will be required, however, if they are to convince the electorate.