Disruption in Brazil not just a copycat of 2021 Washington riots - nor is it clear that the outcome will be similar

On the afternoon of Sunday January 8th at approximately 3pm Brazilian time, thousands of rioters invaded the Presidential Palace, along with the buildings of Congress and the Supreme Court in Brasília, the political and administrative capital of the country. They left a trail of destruction behind them. Offices were damaged, computers were stolen, important works of art were defaced and objects of irreplaceable historical value were destroyed.

As the rioters moved through the buildings creating mayhem, they made a point of broadcasting their actions live on social media. In one video published on Twitter, a man wrapped in the national flag holds up the original copy of the Brazilian constitution. The majority of Brazilians watching this were shocked. The constitution dates from 1988 and remains a powerful symbol of the country’s return to democracy and political stability after a violent military dictatorship that lasted from 1964 to 1985.

But the people who rioted in Brasília are not interested in democracy. They are far-right extremists whose actions have been inspired by the inflamed rhetoric of former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro, who lost the latest elections to Luis Inácio Lula da Silva in October 2022, thereby becoming the first president of the country in modern history who has failed to be re-elected to a second term by popular vote.

Bolsonaro’s hard-line supporters make no secret of their sympathy for the similar views espoused by Donald Trump and extreme groups like QAnon in the US

Since the results of the presidential election were announced Bolsonaro’s hard-line supporters have been camping outside army headquarters throughout the country, demanding military intervention. They do not accept Lula’s victory, and perceive what will be his third term in office as a political threat, persuading themselves that his Worker’s Party plans to transform Brazil into a communist state.

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Many Brazilians were concerned that these people who see themselves as patriots would try to cause social unrest or commit some act of violence during the inauguration of President Lula on the first of January, just 10 days ago.

Fortunately the inauguration passed without incident, leading some of us, after watching the well-staged ceremony in which Lula received the presidential sash from the hands of representatives of the Brazilian population, to hope that the radical demonstrators would relent and finally accept the election result.

[ Madrid Letter: A divided Spain nervously watches turmoil unfolding in Brazil ]

[ The Irish Times view on the protests in Brazil ]

[ Brazil: Arrest warrant issued for former president Bolsonaro’s justice minister following Brasília riot ]

The January 8th riots saw those hopes destroyed. What happened in Brasília on that day resembles the invasion of the Capitol in Washington DC, on the 6th of January 2021*, and no doubt was inspired by it. Bolsonaro’s hard-line supporters make no secret of their sympathy for the similar views espoused by Donald Trump and extreme groups like QAnon in the US.

But the disruption in Brasília wasn’t just a copycat of what happened two years ago in Washington. Nor is it clear that the outcome will be similar. At the moment the evidence seems to indicate that most Brazilians reacted with shock and dismay to the events on Sunday, while two years after the events in the Capitol a significant percentage of Americans seem still to be supportive of what happened there.

A poll conducted by Atlas/Intel and posted on Twitter on the 10th of January suggests that 75.8 per cent of Brazilians disagree with the action of the rioters on Sunday, while a recent article published on the website of the Brookings Institution indicates that American opinion remains far more evenly divided on the violence in Washington.

The rioters’ camp outside the army headquarters in Brasília was dismantled by the police following the events on Sunday and about a thousand people were held for questioning

It is possible that the divergence between Brazil and the US will fade with time and that once the immediate shock of the event passes, support for the action in Brasília will increase among the general population.

There is no doubt that the riot on Sunday represents a serious attack on Brazilian democracy. However if support for the rioters remains low among the general population and especially among less extremist supporters of the former president, then it is possible that in the longer term, depending on how well he manages the whole situation, Mr Lula may have an opportunity to increase his own political support and to strengthen the moderate middle ground.

As the results of the Atlas/Intel poll suggest, there are reasons to remain optimistic about the prospects of democracy in Brazil. Mr Lula’s pronouncement on Sunday after the incident was firm and to the point, demanding accountability. The rioters’ camp outside the army headquarters in Brasília was dismantled by the police following the events on Sunday and about a thousand people were held for questioning. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, famous for the uncompromising stance he has shown towards other recent threats to Brazilian democracy, has stated that the institutions of the country will not bend to terror.

What happened in Brazil on Sunday is a reminder of what can go wrong when the governing forces within a country make false claims about its political institutions, as happened during Bolsonaro’s presidency. It is also particularly worrying to hear reports that there were civil servants among the rioters and that local authorities such as the governor of Brasília and his secretary of public security seem to have acted with what many regard as excessive leniency in dealing with the crisis.

Brazil is the largest economy in South America and the maintenance of the efficient and healthy functioning of its democratic institutions is of great importance to the stability of the region as a whole.

Juliana de Albuquerque is an academic at University College Cork and columnist with the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S Paulo

*A change was made to this article; the original headline incorrectly referred to the 2020 Washington riots. This was amended to 2021