North Korea: China, Japan and Russia are now on side to put pressure on North Korea and its nuclear activities, writes Jasper Becker in Seoul.
A diplomatic and military noose is tightening around North Korea, and its shrill claims that it is now close to becoming a nuclear power sounds more like a plea for help than a worrying threat.
Despite the backlash over the Iraq invasion which President Bush is facing, his policies have brought about major shifts in East Asia and may even lead to success. Here is why.
The Iraq invasion was based on the premise that the UN had been shown to be incapable of enforcing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the spread of WMD. By dealing with the weakest member of the Axis of Evil, Washington hoped to get more co-operation from other states, even if their motive was to forestall another unilateral US action.
With Iran, the European Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have stepped up the pressure. Three key powers - China, Japan and Russia - have all turned up the heat on North Korea too. Next month, they and the two Koreas will take part in a second round of six-party talks designed to drive home a common message.
China is the biggest win for the Bush administration. Since the start of the year, its position has changed dramatically and Washington is sounding very grateful.
Western diplomats in Beijing date the change to February. US Under Secretary of State Mr James Kelly came to Beijing and bluntly warned the US would launch a pre-emptive strike against the DPRK's nuclear facilities unless there was change.
The North's leader Mr Kim Jong Il became so terrified when US forces started their "shock and awe" bombing campaign to "decapitate" Saddam Hussein that he fled the country. Defectors based in Seoul say that Kim went in his specially armoured train across the narrow border linking his country with Russia and stayed there for weeks, fearing he might be next.
All this prompted the new Chinese Party Secretary Mr Hu Jintao to take the issue seriously. He even ordered the People's Liberation Army to draw up a plan for an invasion of North Korea. Last month, he sent 100,000 troops to the border with North Korea. If there was going to be any "regime change", China would be the one to do it.
In the meantime, China has forced Kim to take part in a series of talks it has brokered in Beijing, including the first round of six-nation talks held just over a month ago.
For decades, China had refused to provide the North with nuclear technology and it was eventually Moscow - now Kim's best ally - which finally agreed to do so in a bid to expand its influence in East Asia. The Russians trained Korean nuclear scientists and provided him with the Yongbyon nuclear reactor in the 1980s, on the condition that he joined the non-proliferation treaty and place the experimental reactor under the supervision of the IAEA.
By 1991, when it emerged that the IAEA had failed to supervise Saddam Hussein's nuclear programme, attention also turned to North Korea. An IAEA team suddenly found evidence to show that North Korea had managed to divert enough fissile material to make several bombs. That discovery almost led to a war. President Clinton was hours away from deciding on a pre-emptive strike when former president Jimmy Carter came back with a deal.
Under what became known as the Agreed Framework, Pyongyang agreed to allow the IAEA inspectors back. In return, the United States promised to deliver half a million tonnes of fuel oil a year, while Japan and South Korea built it two light water nuclear reactors to solve the North's energy crisis.
In addition, Clinton gave a written undertaking not to attack or invade North Korea. Yet, despite a last-minute push before he retired from office, Clinton never managed to put together a larger package.
When US policy changed after September 11th, and President Bush made his Axis of Evil speech, he also ended any prospect of engagement. Even so, one has to say that the erratic Kim Jong Il has done everything to play into Washington's hands. While Saddam Hussein and Iran have denied the existence of any nuclear weapons programme, forcing the Americans to find the proof, Kim has taunted Washington by expelling the IAEA inspectors and by repeatedly broadcasting his ambition to become a nuclear power.
He made matters still worse last October when Kelly came to Pyongyang. In a fit of fury, Kim let it be known that he had not only secretly continued with the weapons program after 1994, but had embarked on a second, hitherto unknown, programme to obtain fissile material by the process of highly enriching uranium. Kim thus proved that the Bush administration was justified in dumping the Clinton engagement policy. North Korea was now in breach of a whole string of commitments, including a landmark pact negotiated with South Korea in 1992, under which both sides forswore nuclear weapons.
Kim took further missteps with Japan. A year ago, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi came to Pyongyang offering to establish diplomatic recognition and provide up to $13 billion in aid. Hoping to clear the air, Kim admitted to ordering the kidnapping of various Japanese citizens, and then revealed some had died in unexplained circumstances. Japanese public opinion became further incensed when North Korea allowed some of the captives to return to Japan for a visit but then demanded their return. North Korea also prevented their families from joining them.
All this drove Tokyo firmly in to Washington's camp and, together, they have suspended nearly all deliveries of food and fuel and dropped the nuclear power station projects. Tokyo also signed up for Washington's missile defence system.
For fear of making matters worse, Kim has shied away from threats to test a nuclear weapon or test more long-range missiles. Instead he keeps turning up the rhetoric which means that Washington suspects Pyongyang is just bluffing.
Even if Pyongyang did now hold a nuclear test, that too would be self-defeating. It says it wants the US to provide aid and security guarantees in exchange for promises to abandon all nuclear weapons programmes. So once it has the weapons, what would the deal be ? Besides, the US could only agree to Kim's offer if it came with a tough monitoring system. Yet it is impossible to imagine the kind of flying inspector squads and journalists seen in Iraq rushing around North Korea's 600 miles of tunnels and caves.
Kim Jong Il's biggest miscalculation has been to antagonise China. China is still Pyongyang's most important guarantor of its security. If relations deteriorate still further, then Kim could be finished. Only South Korea now remains as an ardent advocate of engagement, but the Sunshine policy has lost most of its allure. Public enthusiasm has dropped and South Korean business has lost interest, since everyone has lost money trading with the North.
The momentum of Kim Dae Jung's presidency was such that the new South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is still pushing it.
President Roh has been gamely trying to persuade Washington to soften its tone and is hesitating on whether to send troops to Iraq for fear of antagonising the North. Yet his ability to influence either Pyongyang or Washington is small.
Under the logic of the Sunshine policy, threatening the North plays into the hands of Kim Jong Il because it justifies his "military first" dictatorship and ensures the country remains in permanent state of emergency. Experts like Dr Paik argue that Kim is actually a closet reformer whose intentions are kept in check by the military hardliners he counts on to stay in power.
Washington has certainly sharpened the military threat. The US and South Korea have embarked on a $13 billion military modernisation programme to introduce the hardware and strategies used with such success against Iraq's defences. Also being put in place is a multi-national naval blockade to curtail the North's exports of dangerous weapons and cut its earning from hard drug smuggling.
As international aid shipments have slumped to their lowest level in five years, living conditions in North Korea are deteriorating to the level seen in 1996 and 1997 - when some three million perished of disease and hunger.
Kim Jong Il has probably concluded that the US is determined to get rid of him, come what may.