Strasbourg: swings and roundabouts

The implications of the revised boundaries for the European Parliament constituencies are assessed by Mark Brennock.

The implications of the revised boundaries for the European Parliament constituencies are assessed by Mark Brennock.

Dublin (4 seats)

Currently 1 FF; 1 FG; 1 Lab; 1 GP.

Speculation that the commission would recommend adding Meath to the Dublin constituency caused a growing belief that Fine Gael would run former Taoiseach Mr John Bruton here in an attempt to retain the seat of outgoing MEP Ms Mary Banotti.

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Now that Meath has remained in the Leinster constituency - now called East - the constituency is somewhat less attractive for Mr Bruton, but Fine Gael sources said last night that he could run there anyway.

His past national profile as Taoiseach together with his work as a senior member of the Convention on the Future of Europe could make him attractive in the capital, where recent polls show Fine Gael is not guaranteed a seat without a very good candidate. Barrister and environmental campaigner Mr Colm Mac Eochaidh is also seeking a nomination for Fine Gael.

Fianna Fáil deputy Mr Eoin Ryan is to seek a nomination to replace Mr Niall Andrews, who is retiring. He is likely to be joined by a running mate, probably from the north side as he is a southsider, and possibly a woman, for gender balance. No definite names have emerged.

Labour has already chosen sitting MEP Mr Proinsias De Rossa and TCD law professor Ms Ivana Bacik to run. Green Party MEP Ms Patricia McKenna will also seek to defend her seat. Other serious contenders will be Ms Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin and possibly Ms Liz O'Donnell of the Progressive Democrats.

Fianna Fáil appears certain to win one seat, with Labour likely to retain its. Beyond that, nothing is certain, with two remaining seats being fought over by Fine Gael, the PDs, Ms McKenna, Ms McDonald and Ms Bacik.

East (3 seats) Currently 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 GP.

Fianna Fáil's two MEPs, Mr Jim Fitzsimons and Mr Liam Hyland, are retiring, which is just as well as there is probably only one seat for the party in this constituency, reduced from four to three seats.

Speculation has centred on two Ministers of State, Mr Liam Aylward and Mr John Browne, as possible party candidates, but normally reliable sources say the party ticket is quite uncertain. Fine Gael's Ms Avril Doyle will seek to retain her seat and her chances are good unless Mr Bruton decides to run in Leinster rather than Dublin.

For Labour, senior figures talk up the chances of Mr Brendan Howlin, their speculation complicated by the fact that Mr Howlin has so far said he is not interested. Wicklow councillor Mr Nicky Kelly and last year's Meath Dáil candidate have expressed interest. Sinn Féin has yet to select a candidate. Ms Nuala Ahern MEP will have a strong chance of retaining her seat, despite the shrinking of the constituency's representation. Fianna Fáil will win one seat. Ms Doyle must wait to see whether she will face a strong challenge from Labour - or from within her own party.

South (3 seats) Currently 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind.

The loss of a seat and of Clare to the new North West constituency will make this a difficult constituency for Fianna Fáil to hold its two seats. Fine Gael MEP Mr John Cushnahan is also not running again, leaving his party with a difficult job of retaining a seat.

Mr Brian Crowley is Fianna Fáil's undisputed front-runner and the outgoing European Parliament chairman, Mr Pat Cox, should win a very large vote. That leaves Mr Collins fighting to retain his seat against a challenge from Fine Gael (possibly former leader Mr Michael Noonan), Labour (possibly Senator Brendan Ryan), the Green Party and Sinn Féin's Waterford councillor, Mr David Cullinane. Many in Labour would like former leader and Tánaiste Mr Dick Spring to run, but he has said no.

North-West (3 seats) Currently 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Ind.

The split in the anti-abortion movement at the time of the last referendum on the subject has also had an impact on the amount of local election workers available to Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon MEP and figures in the established parties suggest she is vulnerable, although they underestimated her before.

The sitting Fianna Fáil MEP, Mr Seán O'Neachtain, was a replacement for Mr Pat "The Cope" Gallagher, who was elected in 1999 but has since resigned, having been made a Minister of State. Mr O'Neachtain will seek a nomination again, but it is rumoured that Minister of State Mr Frank Fahey may do so too.

Mr Jim Higgins is seen as a likely Fine Gael candidate, as is Donegal senator Mr Joe McHugh. It is not known yet whether Independent Sligo-Leitrim TD Ms Marian Harkin, who narrowly missed a seat last time, will run again.

Labour is considering putting up Roscommon-based Mr Hughie Baxter, who contested last year's Dáil election and Galway City alderman Ms Catherine Connolly. Sinn Féin is expected to run Donegal-based Mr Pearse Doherty.