Middle East: The explanation for the Israeli Prime Minister's mixed actions might lie more in narrow domestic politics, writes Peter Hirschberg in Jerusalem
For a fleeting moment, as President George Bush clasped hands with Middle East leaders at the Aqaba summit just eight days ago, many in the region and outside it tried to suspend their well-placed scepticism; hoping, maybe, that this time things would be different.
After all, it was the first time since taking office that Mr Bush had put himself personally on the line in an effort to get the shattered peace process back on track.
The Palestinians also had a new Prime Minister, Mr Mahmoud Abbas, who was bravely telling his own people, in no-nonsense terms, that violence was an unacceptable means to achieve their political goals.
The hardline Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, was beginning to sound like a political dove, telling his people that the time had come to end the "occupation." And moderate Arab states appeared to be on board.
But the wave of violence in the region over the last 48 hours has extinguished that cautious optimism that many allowed themselves in the immediate aftermath of Aqaba.
Sixteen people were killed and dozens injured yesterday when a Palestinian suicide bomber blew himself up on a bus in Jerusalem. Less than an hour later Israeli helicopters fired missiles at the car of a senior Hamas militant in Gaza, killing him and seven others.
The day before, on Tuesday, Israel had tried to assassinate a senior Hamas figure in Gaza, injuring him and killing three others. Hours later three Palestinians were killed when helicopters targeted their car. The army said they were responsible for firing rudimentary rockets at an Israeli town.
After the Aqaba summit, Mr Bush said he had told the leaders on both sides that he planned to "ride herd" in the Middle East, a phrase he said was meant to indicate he would ensure they lived up to their responsibilities as outlined in the road map.
On Tuesday he expressed deep annoyance with Mr Sharon over the assassination attempt. Yesterday he strongly condemned the suicide attack.
But few seem to have been impressed, so far, by the President's stated determination to see the road map through. The Israeli Prime Minister has attached almost supreme importance to his relationship with the Bush administration, yet his actions yesterday raised questions about his sincerity in implementing the US-backed peace plan.
Politicians on the Israeli left accused Mr Sharon of intentionally trying to torpedo the road map. But aides to the Prime Minister said Hamas leaders were the ones planning to strangle the road map - as borne out by yesterday's bomb attack - and so had to be stopped.
They also pointed out that in the first four days after the Aqaba summit seven Israelis, five of them soldiers, had been killed in attacks by Palestinian gunmen.
It is possible that the Israeli leader misread the Americans, thinking they would accept the assassination of a leading Hamas figure with quiet understanding.
But the explanation for Mr Sharon's mixed actions - ordering the dismantling of illegal outposts in the West Bank, as stipulated in the first phase of the road map, while ordering the assassination in Gaza - might lie more in the narrow confines of domestic politics.
Many of the Prime Minister's right-wing supporters have expressed dismay over what they consider his growing willingness to make major concessions to reach a deal with the Palestinians.
A successful hit on a senior Hamas leader, he might have thought, would silence those in his Likud party who earlier this week held up signs at a party convention accusing him of surrendering to terror by accepting the road map. An added bonus: it would divert attention from the removal of the settler outposts.
When he ordered the Gaza strike, however, Mr Sharon must have known it would further undermine the already shaky domestic status of Mr Abbas, who has been trying to negotiate an end to attacks on Israelis with Hamas and the other armed Palestinian militias.
While Mr Abbas's position among the Palestinians continues to weaken, the popularity of Mr Yasser Arafat, who has watched with apparent satisfaction as his No 2 flounders, continues to grow. Yesterday he called for an immediate ceasefire, but stopped short of saying Hamas would be held responsible for the consequences of the ongoing violence, as Mr Abbas has done.
Some Israeli observers suggested yesterday that the latest spasm of violence might actually prompt the sides to restrain themselves. Without immediate, aggressive US intervention, that is a wishful scenario.
The question is whether a clearly frustrated Mr Bush can sever the cycle of violence. If he can't, then the peace plan will enjoy the same gloomy fate of its predecessors.