IRAQ: The nature of the actions being launched against US troops in Iraq suggests that a well-organised and determined resistance is growing, writesTom Clonan
Gen John Abizaid, America's new chief of staff at Central Command, has confirmed that the frequency and nature of attacks on US troops in Iraq in recent weeks are consistent with an organised campaign of guerrilla warfare. This is directly contrary to US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's June 30th assertion that the fighting in Iraq was not "anything like a guerrilla war or an organised resistance".
Attacks such as Wednesday's attempted surface-to-air missile strike on a US aircraft at Baghdad airport are indicative of a deteriorating security situation in Iraq.
That attack occurred at one of America's most heavily fortified installations within Iraq. Garrisoned by roughly 10,000 troops, the airport would not have been considered a soft target by Iraqi resistance fighters. The attempt to bring down an American C130 Hercules plane came on the anniversary of Saddam's 1979 rise to power as president of Iraq.
The timing and nature of this attack suggest a determined and organised enemy force. Unlike the sporadic sniper attacks and opportunistic small-arms assaults experienced by US military convoys to date, this would have involved elements of reconnaissance, planning, concealment and execution, which implies the existence of a relatively sophisticated command structure.
The existence of such a command structure is further evidenced by reports of ongoing mortar attacks on US installations such as the military base in the city of Balad. Mortars are crew-served weapons that require specialist skills to site and fire. As indirect-fire weapons with ranges of up to 20 km, they also require a supply of heavy ammunition.
In addition, mortar crews require radio communications with observers directing fire onto the target area. That such attacks are ongoing, or even possible, suggests a resistance movement that is operating with the support and co-operation of the civilian population. Such attacks - and, by implication, such support - seem concentrated in what is now termed the Sunni triangle, to the north and west of Baghdad.
Populated in the main by Sunni Muslims associated with Saddam's former regime, the Sunni triangle forms the battlefield on which the emerging guerrilla war is being fought. Consistent with the Soviet experience in Afghanistan, US troops will be forced to adapt the modus operandi of their current occupation to counter mortar, ambush and sniper attacks. One likely consequence is that US troops will no longer travel in non-armoured or soft-skinned vehicles such as the ubiquitous US Humvee, and will probably switch to heavily armed armoured columns. The use of helicopter transports will also increase in order to avoid the risk of ground assault.
Such measures, whilst guaranteeing the security of vulnerable US ground troops, will also ensure the further isolation of American forces from the population whose support they require for a successful transition of power.
This is precisely the aim of a guerrilla force that has deliberately targeted supporters of or collaborators with the US occupation of Iraq. This fracturing of the fledgling civil-military relationship is being carefully orchestrated with deliberate attacks on US-backed institutions and civil administrators. This is illustrated by the recent targeting of police recruits in a bomb attack and the assassination on Wednesday of the Mayor of Haditah, Mr Mohammed al-Jurayfi, perceived to have been sympathetic to the US occupation.
Aside from the worsening security situation in Iraq, the US military is coming under growing pressure to maintain the momentum of its domestic and international deployments. With 150,000 soldiers committed to Iraq, 70,000 to Japan and Korea, a further 8,500 in Afghanistan and up to 20,000 in Europe and the Balkans, the US military is sorely stretched to meet its commitments world-wide. This vulnerability has been underlined of late by recent developments in Korea and Liberia.
In order to postpone the prospect of replacing US troops currently assigned to Iraq, Gen Abizaid has suggested that US troops be rotated on 12-month tours of duty. Referring to how this system was used in Vietnam, Gen Abizaid is reported to have said, "We've done it before, we can do it again." This statement will do little to reassure an American public that is growing increasingly alarmed at the escalating human and financial cost of their involvement in Iraq.
To cover America's growing military commitments world-wide, President Bush has requested a defence budget of $379.9 billion from Congress. If approved, this will cost the US taxpayer $42 million per hour over the coming year to fund their security concerns at home and abroad. In Iraq, a Kalashnikov rifle can be bought for as little as $12. A rocket-propelled grenade can be procured for anything between $800 and $1,000. It is ironic to note that such low-cost, low-tech weapons are being used to probe US defences in Iraq and to challenge the strength and resolve of the most powerful nation.
Tom Clonan is a retired army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He is a fellow of the US based Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He lectures at the school of media, DIT