Retailers forecast bumper seasonal business

Retailers look set to enjoy a bumper Christmas, with retail sales around 10 to 15 per cent ahead of this time last year by value…

Retailers look set to enjoy a bumper Christmas, with retail sales around 10 to 15 per cent ahead of this time last year by value, according to the Chambers of Commerce of Ireland (CCI).

"Retail is up 10 to 15 per cent in the main centres across the State and a little bit slower in Dublin, at 8 to 10 per cent, but we think the pattern in Dublin is unusual," said Mr John Dunne, chief executive of the CCI. "It built up slowly, but last weekend was pretty busy, and this weekend is expected to be a bumper one,"

Many stores are opening for longer hours to meet demand in the final days before Christmas, with tomorrow being treated almost as a normal shopping day.

Various reasons are being given for the rise in the value of sales - everything from a rise in prices and discounting by retailers to "mattress money" coming into circulation before the arrival of the euro and people spending Eircom share cash.

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"The economic recession that people are talking about hasn't hit retail yet, by and large, but if you look carefully, you'll see a lot of retailers have already put out discounted merchandise," said Mr Shaun Rippington, chairman of the Dublin City Centre Business Association (DCBA).

"So, while there are lots of people around, they are availing of bargains that historically wouldn't have come around until the 27th and 28th when retailers start their winter sales,"

The arrival of cheques worth around €600 million in early December to 450,000 former Eircom shareholders following its takeover by Valentia is also boosting the Christmas spending spree, according to Mr Dunne.

Ironically, the economic downturn may also be having an effect on people's spending patterns, Mr Dunne said.

"There is a sense of people spending, thinking: 'What the hell, if the good times are coming to an end, we may as well have one last go at Christmas'," he said.

There is also evidence of "mattress money" finding its way into circulation ahead of the January 1st introduction of the euro.

"There's no great evidence of people not spending money out there, and if they're spending it, the question is where are they getting it from. They're not getting it from us because we're actually taking more in than we're giving out," said a Central Bank spokesman.

"They must be getting it from somewhere, so there has to be a strong suggestion that they are using dormant cash they were not using up to now."

Clerys department store said it had noticed an upturn in the purchase of high-ticket items in its furnishing business in Leopardstown and Blanchardstown, which it said was due to a cultural factor indicating uncertainty about the euro and extra confidence in the pound.

"This suggests that people are more confident making a high-ticket purchase in a currency with which they are familiar as opposed to purchasing with euros. In addition, people can compare pound prices easier than euro prices," Clerys said.

The boost in sales during the critically-important Christmas season appears unaffected by ongoing difficulties on roads around the State. Mr Rippington said sales seemed unaffected by the gridlock in parts of Dublin and other major centres. "I wouldn't say it is any better or worse than this time last year," he said.

However, the Small Firms Association said the Christmas holiday period would bring further traffic chaos across Ireland. More than nine out of 10 companies were saying the traffic situation was having an adverse effect on business.

According to the SFA survey, traffic gridlock is now costing business millions of pounds a year as goods and people are stranded each day.

Mr Dunne warned that retailers could face a lean time in the new year. "It's looking like a good Christmas. The real issue is if it will go into the January sales. But certainly, by mid to late-January, you are looking at a very lean first six months of next year," he said.