BURMA: Unprecedented engagement with the world community could bring change, writes Amy Kazmin
FOR BURMA'S normally reclusive military rulers, resented by their own citizens and mistrustful of the outside world's intentions, the devastation wrought by Cyclone Nargis has posed an uncomfortable dilemma at a sensitive political moment.
With the numbers of dead and missing now exceeding 60,000, the generals - still skittish after their suppression of anti-government protests in September - have dropped their usual mantra of self-reliance, and admitted they need international help.
Governments, including western countries that usually spurn the generals as pariahs, have responded to the rare appeal for help with big offers of assistance, potentially paving the way for the largest foreign engagement in Burma's troubled post-independence history.
"There is a real potential for this to be a game-changing moment," says Sean Turnell, a Macquarie University professor and editor of Burma Economic Watch.
"I am mindful of what happened in Aceh, where you had this intractable problem, but after the tsunami the whole conversation changed." Even George Bush, the US president and Rangoon's fiercest critic among world leaders, has offered US naval forces for urgent search-and-rescue efforts and to help quickly distribute relief supplies to remote areas.
Yet the prospects for effective co-operation between the regime and the international community remain uncertain, with formidable obstacles to overcome. With the generals gearing up for a national referendum on a new constitution that critics say would, in effect, legitimise military rule, analysts say the regime is probably reluctant to give foreign aid workers free rein to roam around the country.
At the same time, the generals are thought to be acutely aware of the risk that an inadequate relief effort could provoke an explosion of public anger from a population still seething after last September's protests and the violent crackdown.
"At one level, the regime worries that events could move out of their control if they let in western aid groups, and lose that really tight control that they have had," says Mr Turnell.
"But they must also be extra-ordinarily mindful of the potential that this could cause unrest in the country.
"People are already quickly jumping on to the fact that the army was out on the streets so quickly in September and asking: 'Where are they now?'"
So far, the regime has begun receiving emergency relief supplies from its neighbours, including India and Thailand. But it has yet to approve visas for international disaster relief experts, including UN officials and international NGO workers.
Richard Horsey, a spokesman for the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs, says relief organisations are struggling to get those supplies in the country into the areas where they are needed.
While the Burmese military has made some helicopters and boats available to carry supplies to remote areas, far more transportation will be needed.
"The major bottleneck will be the local delivery, rather than getting stuff into the Rangoon airport," says Mr Horsey. "We need distribution channels."
Still, Burma's generals seem unlikely to follow the example of Indonesia and other countries hit by the 2004 tsunami, which allowed US forces - and equipment - to help the relief effort.
"The problem is that everything, including aid, has been politicised, with suspicions on all sides," says Thant Myint-U, a Burmese historian and former UN official.
"If . . . the aid community and the Burmese authorities can work well together, keep politics entirely away, and show that effective and impartial aid delivery is possible, I think that would be a great step forward."
- (Financial Times service)