YESTERDAY'S devastating bombardment of the headquarters of the Fijian battalion of Unifil could force Israel to curtail its Grapes of Wrath operation, do accept a simple ceasefire in Southern Lebanon.
Until yesterday's attack, the Lebanese believed that Israel sought to prolong hostilities by trying to impose on a reluctant Lebanon a formal agreement providing long term peace and quiet along Israel's northern frontier.
Israel favours a secret but leaked US proposal which would reinstate a 1993 unwritten gentleman's agreement prohibiting attacks on civilians and would expand this ban to include attacks on Israeli troops in Israel's occupation zone in Southern Lebanon. Israel and the US insist that, Lebanon should disarm and disband the 500 strong Hizbullah militia in order to ensure that there are no further attacks.
If quiet prevails along the frontier for "nine months", Israel would consider withdrawing its forces from the occupation zone, though this would only happen within the context of a full peace agreement. Syria, which has 35,000 troops in Lebanon, would be asked to "guarantee the arrangement in exchange for formal acknowledgment of Syria's "special role" in Lebanon.
The Lebanese government, Syria and Hizbullah have expressed support for an alternative French plan which would formalise the 1993 accord, end Hizbullah attacks against Israeli territory but not call for the disbanding of Hizbullah's militia. Nor does it envisage an end to its attacks, against Israel's occupation zone, from which Lebanon insists Israel must withdraw in accordance with UN Security Resolution 425.
The Lebanese government has, rejected the US proposal because it could "pre empt negotiations on a peace settlement and supersede resolution 425", Mr Marwan Shukri, spokesman of the Ministry of Information, told The Irish Times. The resistance to the Israeli occupation would be forced to halt its activities.
Syria has rejected the plan because, in the words of Mr Muhammad Mashnouk, a newspaper proprietor, it would "weaken Lebanon and Syria in the negotiations" over Israel's evacuation of both Southern Lebanon and the Syrian Golan. "Without military pressure, Israel will not withdrawn from these territories," he said. By proposing the disarming and disbanding of the Hizbullah resistance, armed and supported by Iran, the US is also, Mr Mashnouk said, "removing Iran from the Lebanese front".
Because Syria would have to agree to the "neutralising" of Hizbullah, the good relations that, Syria and Iran forged during the Iran Iraq war would certainly deteriorate.
This would serve Washington's policy of "containing" and isolating Iran, which the US has successfully demonised through its, anti terrorist campaign. And, by breaking the ties between Syria and Iran, Washington would also isolate Damascus, the last key Arab state to hold out against the peace process.
The Syrians have no interest in US and Israeli de jure recognition of their special role in Lebanon, Mr Mashnouk continued. Damascus has achieved its political aim in Lebanon and would not like to antagonise the Lebanese who remain suspicious of Syria's long term intentions. Besides, Grapes of Wrath has come at a bad moment for Syria: President Halez al Assad is reportedly suffering a flare up of chronic leukaemia.
The Israeli bombardment, however, has boosted Hizbullah from being regarded by most Lebanese as a pro Iranian Shia militia to being seen as the "national resistance". This means it could be extremely difficult to curb Hizbullah's activities. A compromise based on the French plan would seem to be the most likely vehicle to bring about a ceasefire.
