Europe 2004: There are stirrings already in the political undergrowth relating to next year's European polls, writes Michael O'Regan, Parliamentary Reporter.
Numbers alone ordain that there will be political casualties in the European elections in the summer of next year.
Under the terms of the Treaty of Nice, Ireland's number of MEPs will drop by two, to 13. A Boundary Review Commission, headed by Mr Justice Vivian Lavan, is reviewing the European Parliament constituencies and a report is expected by the end of the year.
The current speculation is that Clare or Westmeath might be transferred into the Connacht-Ulster constituency, and Meath might be added to Dublin. Munster and Dublin could be reduced to three-seaters.
The elections will be a critical test for all the parties. Fianna Fáil and the PDs will be seeking to halt the slide in the Government's support, while Fine Gael, Labour, the Green Party and Sinn Féin will be hoping for gains.
There will be considerable interest in the performance of Independents.
Munster (4 seats)
Outgoing: Mr Pat Cox, Independent; Mr Gerard Collins and Mr Brian Crowley, FF; Mr John Cushnahan, FG.
The indications to date are that all four will be seeking re-election. If the constituency becomes a three-seater, there will be a dog-fight for the third seat.
With his high profile as President of the European Parliament, Mr Cox seems sure of re-election. Last time, he polled 63,954 first-preference votes, trailing Mr Collins, who had 83,106, and Mr Crowley who had a remarkable 154,195.
His profile has increased immeasurably since then, but he could have a fight on his hands to overtake Mr Crowley, who has a huge personal vote. Indeed, Mr Crowley could afford a slide in his vote and still be assured of re-election, although there is no indication that his popularity is on the wane.
In a three-seater, Mr Collins and Mr Cushnahan could battle it out for the third seat, with the Fine Gael MEP the underdog. Last time, he polled 46,100 first preferences.
Fianna Fáil sources say that Mr Crowley will retain his personal vote, while Mr Collins, an old political warrior who has never lost an election, will garner sufficient party support.
Much could depend on Mr Cushnahan's running mate. Current speculation centres on Sen Paul Bradford, who lost his Dáil seat in Cork East in the general election.
If the constituency remains a four-seater, there is unlikely to be a change. Labour's obvious candidate would be former Tánaiste and Kerry North TD, Mr Dick Spring, but he has firmly ruled out a return to politics.
None of its Munster TDs is believed to be interested in running, and the speculation is that Cork's Sen Brendan Ryan could be the candidate.
Last time, Sinn Féin ran Mr Martin Ferris, but he has since been elected TD for Kerry North. This time, the party is likely to run a candidate being groomed for a Dáil seat.
Given Mr Dan Boyle's Dáil success in Cork South Central, the Green Party is expected to run a candidate to maintain its profile in Munster.
Leinster (4 seats)
Outgoing: Ms Nuala Ahern, Green Party; Ms Avril Doyle, FG; Mr Liam Hyland, Mr Jim Fitzsimons, FF.
Fianna Fáil has to go back to the drawing board in terms of candidate-selection in Leinster. Mr Hyland and Mr Fitzsimons are retiring, and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, may look to some of his high-profile Ministers of State to run. Names being mentioned include Carlow-Kilkenny's Mr Liam Aylward and Wexford's Mr John Browne, both Junior Ministers, experienced politicians and accomplished vote-getters.
There is considerable speculation about the intentions of the former Taoiseach, Mr John Bruton, who represents Meath in the Dáil. Although he has made no public indication of his plans, his interest in Europe is well known.
However, if he decides to run in Leinster, he could well end up taking Ms Doyle's seat, leaving Fine Gael without a gain. On the other hand, the party would have two strong candidates, given that Ms Doyle topped the poll the last time with 67,881 first preferences.
A decline in Fianna Fáil's fortunes could see the party vulnerable to a seat loss, with, perhaps, a rejuvenated Fine Gael the beneficiary.
If Mr Bruton decides not to run, there is speculation that Ms Doyle's running mate could be Mr Charles Flanagan, former TD for Laois-Offaly.
There is speculation that the Wexford TD, Mr Brendan Howlin, might run for Labour. If he does he will be a formidable candidate.
The election could yet see Wexford's Ms Doyle, Mr Browne and Mr Howlin in the race.
Last time, Sinn Féin ran Mr Arthur Morgan, who went on to take a seat in Louth in the general election. He polled over 20,000 first-preference votes. The candidate this time is likely to be an aspiring TD.
Dublin (4 seats)
Outgoing: Mr Niall Andrews, FF; Ms Mary Banotti, FG; Mr Proinsias De Rossa, Labour; Ms Patricia McKenna, Green Party.
Personnel charges are inevitable in Dublin, given that Mr Andrews and Ms Banotti are retiring.
The Fianna Fáil ticket is expected to feature Dublin South East's Mr Eoin Ryan, a former Junior Minister, and Dublin North Central's Mr Seán Haughey.
Fine Gael is considerably depleted in the capital and could face a formidable challenge in holding Ms Banotti's seat.
There is speculation that Mr Colm MacEochaidh, a candidate in Dublin South East in the general election, and Sen Brian Hayes, who lost his seat in Dublin South West, may be the candidates.
The name of the former Taoiseach, Mr John Bruton, is also being mentioned, particularly if Meath is included in the Dublin constituency.
Labour's Mr Proinsias De Rossa is likely to be joined by Ms Ivana Bacik, reid professor of criminal law and criminology in TCD.
The form PD minister of state and TD for Dublin South, Ms Liz O'Donnell, is considering whether to run.
Sinn Féin, meanwhile, sees Dublin as its best chance of obtaining a seat. The candidate will be Ms Mary Lou McDonald, who ran for the party in Dublin West in the general election.
Connacht-Ulster (3 seats)
Outgoing: Mr Seán Ó Neachtáin, FF; Mr Joe McCartin, FG; Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon, Independent.
Mr Ó Neachtáin replaced Mr Pat "The Cope" Gallagher, when he was elected to the Dáil for Donegal South-West and appointed Minister of State in June of last year. Mr Ó Neachtáin will be seeking a nomination.
Others considering putting their hats in the ring are the Ministers of State, Mr Frank Fahey, who represents Galway West, and Dr Jim McDaid, who represents Donegal North East. If Westmeath is included in the constituency, local TD Mr Donie Cassidy may seek a Fianna Fáil nomination.
With Mr McCartin standing down, the Fine Gael ticket is expected to feature Sen Jim Higgins, who lost his Dáil seat in Mayo in the general election, and Sen Joe McHugh, who will be challenging for a Dáil seat in Donegal North East in the next general election.
Labour's Galway West TD, Mr Michael D. Higgins, has ruled himself out, and the party is considering who to run. Much interest will centre on whether the Independent TD for Sligo-Leitrim, Ms Marian Harkin, will run. Last time, Ms Harkin polled an impressive 47,372 first preferences.