The last Irish Times/TNS mrbi political opinion poll was conducted on May 12th and 13th and was timed to coincide as closely as possible with the first anniversary of the 2002 general election, writes Ian McShane, Managing Director TNS mrbi.
One of the most remarkable findings of that poll was the fact that both the Labour Party's and Fine Gael's core votes were equal at 14 per cent apiece, with Labour actually edging ahead of Fine Gael once the figures had been adjusted to account for the traditional understatement of support for Labour in the polls.
This was the first time support levels for the two parties had been so close since immediately before the November 1992 general election, which resulted in Labour winning a record 32 Dáil seats.
It was pointed out at the time, however, that, as the poll had been conducted in the immediate aftermath of Labour's annual convention, the party may have benefited from an artificial "bounce" in its ratings.
The true litmus test, all agreed, would be the next poll, the results of which are published today.
Table C indicates that support for Labour has indeed declined since that last poll and now stands at 19 per cent.
While this rating represents a drop of three points since its post-convention high in May, it is still a strong showing by the party in relation to its general election performance, and it does indicate that it is the only party which has truly improved its standing in the eyes of the electorate over the last 12 months.
All in all, Fine Gael's ratings have been tracking at in or around 22 per cent over the last 12 months, precisely the level of support the party garnered in first-preference votes at the last general election when it won just 31 seats.
The party is now limbering up for what will be a crucial set of European and local elections next year.
Between now and then, Fine Gael needs to convince the electorate that it can devise and deliver on a range of vibrant and relevant policies, while at the same time positioning Mr Enda Kenny as a credible Taoiseach-in-waiting. In this regard, the party will be somewhat relieved that Mr Kenny's personal rating has improved marginally since last May. In attempting to make up so much ground over such a short period, however, the danger is that members will be tempted to court controversy for the sake of controversy.
For many, memories of Fine Gael's 2002 general election campaign will centre on its commitment to compensate Eircom shareholders for their losses on the volatile stock markets and, more curiously, to do the same for the taxi-drivers whose licence plates plummeted in value following the much-heralded deregulation of the industry.
Fine Gael strategists will have learned from that experience, and we can expect a more focused approach to the forthcoming election campaigns.
No doubt most headlines concerning today's poll will relate to the continuing decline in Government satisfaction, and in particular on the further slippage in Mr Bertie Ahern's personal rating (Table A).
Readers need not be reminded that the Taoiseach has emerged from a bruising summer period in terms of the amount of negative publicity generated by matters both political and personal.
Indeed, his rating is now 1 point lower than that which precipitated Fine Gael's leadership heave against Mr John Bruton in January 2001, and the lowest of any Taoiseach since Mr Albert Reynolds's in November 1992 following the PDs' resignation from the coalition with Fianna Fáil.
Until now it has always been the case that as Mr Ahern's personal ratings have slid with the population at large, they have always remained solid within the constituency that mattered most; the core Fianna Fáil support base.
In May, for example, Mr Ahern's support among stated Fianna Fáil supporters stood at 79 per cent.
The corresponding figure today is 73 per cent, a statistically insignificant shift between the two surveys.
The Fianna Fáil parliamentary party will wait until the result of next year's elections before even considering the notion of an alternative party leader.
As has consistently been the case over the last 17 months, the PDs have maintained their share of support, while Fianna Fáil continues to bear the brunt of Government dissatisfaction, slipping to just 30 points on an adjusted basis.
The party's core support figure of 27 percentage points is the lowest registered by Fianna Fáil since the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion polling series began in 1982.
Although the next general election is, in political terms, in the far-distant future, it is notable that the combined Fine Gael, Labour and Green Party first-preference vote now stands at 45 per cent, just short of the 46 per cent which returned a combined majority for Fianna Fáil and the PDs last year.
Arguably as interesting as the fall from grace of the Government over such a short period of time has been the performance of the "minority" opposition parties in both the Dáil and the opinion polls.
There was much comment following last year's election in relation to the potential for an "alternative opposition", with all eyes on the strengthened ranks of the Green Party and Sinn Féin in particular in this regard.
Indeed, only last October the Green Party, Sinn Féin and like-minded independents formed a technical working group in the Dáil, presumably with a view to strengthening its collective voice in dealing with issues of common interest. Since this, however, these parties' new deputies seem to have maintained quite a low profile in relation to Dáil proceedings.
As such, it is perhaps not surprising that the Green Party's rating has drifted from a post-election high of 8 percentage points to 4 over the last two polls.
The fact that Sinn Féin has consistently managed to maintain a 9-10-point rating across all five opinion polls conducted since the election indicates that it has managed to build up a loyal support base which seems impervious to any negative publicity generated in relation to the party.
As the Dáil prepares to resume, the opposition parties are in a strong position to make political capital from the Government's difficulties. In continuing to focus on what they would describe as the Government's failure to deliver on its general election promises, however, the opposition knows it runs the risk of the electorate punishing Fianna Fáil for its perceived misdemeanours at next year's local and European elections, only to return to the fold at the next Dáil poll. We should therefore expect some positive campaigning from Fine Gael and Labour from now on, with clear proposals as to how they, as alternative coalition partners, would deal with such burning issues as health, house prices and roads and transport.