After yesterday's launch of tv3 the question is no longer whether the station will open but rather will it work.
The answer is probably a cautious yes, because the station will not try to set the world alight. It is not offering any expensive home-produced series, new dramas or even Irish-made soaps, all of which can be costly failures. In short, it is not taking risks. The station is a highly researched entertainment channel. Its planners have been looking at viewing habits, demographics and market surveys, and believe that there is a gap which RTE is not serving and E into which tv3 can slot.
Tv3's chairman, Mr James Morris, talks of "repatriating" viewers from British channels. He believes that tv3 can reach its stated aim of six per cent of the audience without taking from RTE's 45 per cent share. Tv3 will "grow the audience for indigenous television", he said at a conference last week.
Its research has shown that people view television as first and foremost an entertainment medium. Tv3 has designed a schedule to appeal to what it describes, in the marketing speak beloved by television executives, as people between the ages of 15 and 44 with a psychological make-up of "affluent acquirers, liberal sophisticates, young aspirers and comfy, full nesters".
The strategy is not new. Tv3's major shareholder, CanWest, has been following it since it began in 1974 with its first television station in Winnipeg, Canada. It has since gone on to establish new stations or turn around ailing stations right across Canada, and more recently in New Zealand and Australia.
What CanWest does is deliver acquired programmes, mainly from Hollywood, where it is the biggest non-US customer, by branding international television with some local colour. Tv3 in Ireland has a news service that is Irish and will give the service its Irish feel, but otherwise it looks remarkably like so many other channels.
Like format music radio, tv3 offers no surprises. It is familiar. The voices are familiar. The view of the newsroom behind the backs of the news anchor people has a familiar feel. Many of the programmes are well-known already.
The schedule is now full of films, comedy and dramas, held together by a twice daily Australian soap called Breakers. The main news programme goes out between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. So far the news has reflected tv3's commitment to entertainment and has appointed an entertainment correspondent, but has not yet named a political correspondent.
Initially, at any rate, there will be a diet of mini-series, new films and Ireland's away European Cup qualifying round soccer matches, all designed to entice people to tune their sets to the new service and sample the schedule.
Research will inform the schedule, so expect changes. According to tv3, the schedule is evolving. The station is highly commercial and its schedule will reflect what the market wants. The schedule will probably look very different by Christmas.
CanWest's involvement was unexpected. The original tv3 consortium have had the licence for 10 years and have been dogged by bad luck, lack of finance and backers and have been through the courts.
It was never envisaged that Ireland's commercial national service would be controlled so completely by a foreign company. CanWest own 45 per cent of tv3 and supplies the senior management.
Many countries, including Canada, have rules about foreign ownership of the media. Even Mr Rupert Murdoch has to take out American citizen ship in order to own a US television channel.
UTV was interested in being a major partner in tv3, but pulled out. Tv3 has since bought a stake in UTV. Some observers believe that CanWest's involvement in Ireland is part of a strategy to get into the British or European markets.
Despite CanWest's impressive record in building a highly profitable television company, it is still wise to be cautious when predicting tv3's future. Ireland is unlike any other market CanWest has ever developed. CanWest's strategy has been to go into markets where there is a dominant player, carve out a niche and deliver a defined audience to the advertisers. It is willing to remain the third player, with low overheads and a high advertising yield.
The Irish market, however, is unique in the degree of over-spill from a foreign market. Half the viewing in Ireland is of television that comes from outside the state. Much of it is very good. That makes it highly competitive in terms of audience and increasingly so in advertising terms as well. Both UTV and Channel 4 sell advertising in the Republic.
RTE is used to branding and scheduling its two channels to its best advantage. The recent acquisition of British premier league football for Network 2 shows it can be highly aggressive.
The advertising industry has welcomed tv3, as it would, but the main reason seems not because it wants an alternative, but it wants something that might force RTE's prices down.
Ironically, RTE is better off with tv3 than without. If tv3 and Today FM are successful, it will end forever the debate about RTE selling of, or privatising Network 2 or 2FM, making Ireland safe for public service broadcasting.