THE US: Support for the recall of California Governor Gray Davis has stalled, according to a new poll, but the Democratic incumbent still has a fight on his hands to prevent being thrown out of office in the October 7th ballot.
Among those hoping to succeed him, Democrat Cruz Bustamante has opened a slim lead over Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, with another Republican State Senator Tom McClintock a strong third.
The Field Poll found that 55 per cent of likely voters support recalling Mr Davis, down from 58 per cent in August. Forty per cent said they opposed the recall, up from 37 per cent. Asked who they would support if more than half of voters opted to recall Mr Davis, 30 per cent said they would vote for Mr Bustamante, who is the state lieutenant governor, 25 per cent for Mr Schwarzenegger and 13 per cent for Mr McClintock, with the rest of the 135-strong field lagging far behind.
The poll opens up intriguing scenarios. If the trend continues, the wooden, unpopular governor could justify his reputation as one of the toughest fighters in American politics. His hope is that Democrats will rally against the recall simply to prevent a Republican governor taking office, and his prospects could improve further with the promised intervention of national heavyweights like former president Bill Clinton.
If the beleaguered governor fails to persuade a majority to vote No to the recall, then the spoils go to the candidate who gets a simple plurality in the list of candidates on the same ballot paper. The Schwarzenegger camp fervently hopes that Mr McClintock will drop out to avoid splitting the Republican vote.
When the Field Poll posed a ballot without Sen McClintock, Mr Schwarzenegger got 33 per cent, to Mr Bustamante's 31 per cent. Perversely, such a development could help Mr Davis, as more Democrats are likely to oppose the recall if it seems that the outcome would be a Republican governor.
Put another way, the better Mr Bustamante does in opinion polls, the more likely it is that Democrats will vote for the recall. As of today Sen McClintock is vowing to remain in the race to the end.
"Let's have a debate and see who's the best man for the job," said Mr McClintock. "There's no way I'm getting out of this, period."
Seeing his support slip, Mr Schwarzenegger has adopted new tactics, putting himself in front of selected audiences to answer questions on campaign issues, particularly the state's crippling $39 billion budget deficit, and to deliver more catchy one-liners. At Chapman University on Monday he noted that he had an honorary doctorate from the university and joked that "I'm not really a doctor ... but then again the reality of it is Gray Davis isn't really a governor."
His wife, Maria Shriver, was booed loudly by union supporters of Governor Davis when she made her first campaign appearance at a suburban Wal-Mart on Monday. As she encouraged people to register to vote, her voice was drowned out by shouts of "No Recall" from a 100-strong crowd.
Asked about the negative attitude some women have towards her husband, Ms Shriver praised him and said she didn't live by what other people thought.
Union leaders tend to support Gov Davis because of his support for labour issues.