Middle East: The prime minister has been warned off expressing any support for the Jewish state, writes Lynne O'Donnell in Beirut
On the terrace of the chic Abdel Wahab restaurant amidst the renewed grandeur of downtown Beirut, the well-heeled diners jumped over their chilled rosé and choked on their fattouch on a recent starlit evening as a fireworks display rent the sky to mark the start of French culture week.
Such jumpiness may appear, at first, a bit extreme. After all, the war ended a dozen years ago.
But just days earlier a television station owned by the Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr Rafiq Hariri, was hit by a rocket attack which is being widely viewed as a warning to the billionaire politician that he should stay clear of regional politics after a speech which suggested he harbours support for Israel.
Two missiles that destroyed the newsroom of Future Television in central Beirut early last week were fired by a group of unidentified men who parked their white BMW outside the station gates, calmly assembled a 107mm rocket-launcher and then fired on the building.
"They took their time. They were in no fear that they would be stopped by security or police," said Mr Joseph Batour, a political analyst at St Joseph's University in Beirut.
No one was injured in the attack, which came days after Mr Hariri returned from a visit to Brazil and which he promptly blamed on "extremists". "When Mr Hariri said it was Islamists he meant that he got the message very clearly that the Syrian authorities know what he did in Brazil and they are not impressed," Mr Batour said.
What Mr Hariri did, according to sources who said it prompted a congratulatory visit from an official of the US embassy, was call for an Arab-Israeli dialogue and implicitly welcome Israel into a free-trade bloc promoted by President George W. Bush and high on the agenda of the World Economic Forum meeting in Jordan.
"We believe in dialogue. We believe in trusting the US. We are not looking for a confrontation," Mr Hariri told his audience.
In doing so, the Prime Minister appears to have acted outside the mandate of his post as a Syrian appointee in Lebanon, the tiny Mediterranean enclave on Syria's eastern flank that has been formally under Damascus's political and military control since 1990.
"Since when has Hariri arrogated the right to mention practicality and pragmatism in the same phrase as the word 'Israelis'," said Michael Young, a columnist with Lebanon's Daily Star. "If Syria ever provided its Lebanese clients with conversation lessons, that one phrase would stand as a paradigm of what not to say."
In sending its message in what Mr Bahout called a "crude, violent and maladroit manner", Syria was also betraying its discomfort with its own diminishing role in Middle Eastern affairs and its inability, or unwillingness, to accept the "new geopolitical reality" of the region.
Lebanon and Syria were excluded from the list of world political and business leaders who have gathered by the Dead Sea to discuss peace and development strategies for the Middle East following the war in Iraq. The "road map" for Arab-Israeli peace, with the establishment of a Palestinian state within three years, is also a priority for discussion.
The Syrian government considers itself, and Lebanon, central to the process as both have outstanding territorial claims with Israel and remain technically at war with their southern neighbour. President Emile Lahoud of Lebanon has called for Beirut and Damascus to be included.
Analysts in Beirut said that without Lebanon as its calling card, Syrian influence in the Middle East, and especially in the Arab-Israeli peace process, would be vastly diminished.
Syria faces pressure over a range of issues - its military and political control over Lebanon, the presence of Palestinian refugee camps and support for Hizbullah, the Party of God listed by Washington as a terrorist organisation - which until the Iraq war had been acceptable to the US for more than a quarter of a century.
Post-war, however, the Americans want change and appear in no mood to wait.
"Lebanon is fundamentally important to Syria," said Mr Young. "Lebanon brings money. It is their door into the region. Through Hizbullah it is relevant."
Despite support from Russia and the European Union, Syria is likely to remain on the outer edge for some time. Washington is becoming increasingly impatient with Damascus and has been sending messages of its own that the pace of change is too slow.
Under Washington's post-war policy, Syrian ambiguity, in purporting to play a pragmatic role regionally while refusing to renounce the radical discourse of Hizbullah, is no longer sustainable.
The stasis in Syrian politics, however, means that the government of Mr Bashar al-Assad believes it needs only to throw down one card to keep the Americans happy, said author and commentator Samir Kassir.
But which card? "Hizbullah is an easy target for the Americans. It would be a credit for President Bush if he succeeds in disarming Hizbullah.
"There is also the Israeli threat to act if necessary. As they are already under pressure on the Palestine issue, they could have some room to act against Hizbullah in Lebanon," he said.
"The Syrians could try to escape the dilemma by withdrawing from Lebanon. This way they could avoid being the castrator of Hizbullah, which is very popular in the Arab world."
The possibility that a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would remove the controlling force over both Hizbullah and the Palestinian refugee camps that have become radical hideouts has long been its justification for remaining.
"Hizbullah and the Syrians are playing with fire," Prof Kassir said.