India goes to the polls today amid tight security after a campaign during which some 80 people were killed in violence from armed separatists. Around 250 million of the 600 million on the electoral register will vote in the first of five rounds of polling to elect 222 MPs for the 545-member Lok Sabha (lower house).
Although voting in most areas ends on March 7th, in a handful of constituencies it has been deferred to June. Counting of votes begins on March 2nd, a day after the third round of polling.
Many analysts and opinion polls, however, predict another hung parliament and yet another weak coalition government similar to that which fell in December after months of internal squabbling.
The army, meanwhile, has been deployed in the southern city of Coimbatore, where at least 46 people were killed and 200 injured in a series of 13 explosions on Saturday, minutes ahead of a rally which was to have been addressed by Mr Lal Krishna Advani, head of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which analysts say is likely to top the polls. No one has claimed responsibility for the bombings.
Six suspected Muslim fundamentalists believed to have been involved in the explosions were apparently killed by their own bomb during a police raid. Additional paramilitary troops have also been sent to Tripura in the north-east, where armed insurgents demanding a poll boycott killed 20 people, including five policemen, last week.
The elections, which have been dominated by the tireless campaigning of Ms Sonia Gandhi, widow of the former prime minister Rajiv, were called last December after her Congress party withdrew its support for the coalition government.
Recent opinion polls suggest that even though Ms Gandhi's efforts may not prevent a hung parliament - which seems almost certain - an increasing number of voters favour a coalition led by Congress rather than by the BJP.
The polls indicate that though the BJP and its allies are likely to emerge as the single largest group, they will fail to get the 272 MPs necessary to form a government. The Italian-born Ms Gandhi, who became an Indian citizen only in 1986, a year after her husband became prime minister, has revitalised listless Congress party workers, declaring war on the opposition on her innumerable rallies across the country.
Though not contesting a seat herself, Ms Gandhi has become the principal focus of media attention in the world's largest democracy. Opinion polls suggest that her campaign has been particularly successful among the country's 282 million women voters. "There is good reason to believe that Mrs Gandhi's decision to plunge into the election campaign could influence events beyond the polls," says one political analyst. Indian politics should be prepared for the advent of another Gandhi. The Nehru-Gandhi family has ruled India for over 40 of the 50 years since independence. Jawaharlal Nehru was succeeded by his daughter, Indira Gandhi, who was in turn followed by her son Rajiv.
