Brussels: Most have never heard of the proposed draft constitution for the EU, writes Denis Staunton.
The latest Eurobarometer poll on the EU's constitutional treaty makes dispiriting reading for those who thought that the Convention on the Future of Europe would bring the issues closer to European citizens. After 18 months of Convention meetings, three concluding ceremonies in Brussels, Thessaloniki and Rome and the start of an Inter-Governmental Conference (IGC) to finalise the treaty text, most Europeans are blissfully unaware that the Convention happened at all.
This is unflattering news, both for the politicians who took part in the Convention and for the journalists who sat through every session and reported the proceedings in laborious detail. In Britain, where the draft constitution made the front pages of the tabloids and provoked angry denunciations in the Commons, only 17 per cent of citizens noticed.
In June, 37 per cent of Irish respondents had heard of the Convention but some appear to have forgotten about it in the meantime because only 30 per cent know about it now. Commission officials acknowledged yesterday the poll results were disappointing but said that, at this stage of negotiations for previous treaties, even fewer people had any idea of what was going on.
The draft constitutional treaty seeks to simplify the EU's complicated system of decision making and to make clearer who decides what. Simplification is, however, an exceptionally complicated and delicate process, especially when it comes to issues that involve shifting concepts such as sovereignty and identity.
Only 1 per cent of Europeans claim to have read the draft text and the other 99 per cent can be forgiven for failing to get through its almost 300 pages. Many of its provisions, which include detailed descriptions of the Common Commercial Policy and a definition of the status of French overseas territories, are unlikely to affect most of us.
The treaty will determine important questions, however, about the distribution of power within the EU and the Union's capacity to act as a coherent force in the world. Yesterday's poll suggests that Irish citizens, most of whom reject the proposal to appoint an EU Foreign Minister, remain unconvinced of the desirability of a more coherent European foreign policy.
Irish respondents were more enthusiastic than most Europeans, however, about the proposal to appoint a full-time president of the European Council. This suggests that, despite the Government's misgivings, Irish citizens believe that the EU needs stronger leadership.
Almost halfway through the IGC, few of the key disagreements about the treaty have been resolved but there are some signs of the shape a deal might take.
The draft treaty's proposal to allow only 15 member-states to nominate Commissioners with full voting rights while the other 10 would not vote is almost certain to be rejected. Each member-state will probably continue to nominate a Commissioner, although Germany is floating the idea that the biggest countries should nominate two.
The German idea, although unpopular among small states, could help to persuade Spain and Poland to drop their demand that the system of qualified majority voting agreed at Nice should remain unchanged. The draft treaty wants to replace this complicated system of weighted votes with a simple formula to define a qualified majority as a simple majority of member-states representing at least 60 per cent of the EU's population.
Spain and Poland have come under enormous pressure to back down, with France and Germany threatening to punish the two countries by cutting their subsidies during the next EU budget round. The final deal is likely to be a package that will balance representation in the Commission and the European Parliament with voting strength in the Council of Ministers.
A proposal to allow some member-states to forge closer defence links is being resisted by staunch NATO members and neutral states for opposing reasons. And a number of governments have doubts about the introduction of a "passarelle" clause that would allow EU leaders to agree unanimously to abolish national vetoes on new policy areas without changing the treaty.
The passarelle, if it is approved, is likely to be a controversial issue during the process of ratifying the treaty.
As the IGC wears on, with little movement from any of the participants, the odds on the negotiations stretching into the Irish Presidency are shortening.