KENYA: A UN report will link Somalia to al-Qaeda, Declan Walsh reports from Nairobi.
A year after al-Qaeda terrorists bombed a Kenyan tourist hotel, a new investigation highlights Somalia's pivotal role in the attack and raises fears of a fresh atrocity launched from the war-torn country.
An al-Qaeda cell used Somalia as a training ground, weapons bazaar and hideout for the twin attacks near Mombasa last November that left 15 people dead, according to UN investigators monitoring Somalia's widely-flouted arms embargo.
In a report due before the UN Security Council next week, they describe how easily terrorists operate in chaotic, war-riven Somalia, where guns are as easily available as food and foreign Islamic groups are increasingly influential.
The report says the Mombasa bombers trained under the cover of a lobster fishing business, bought Soviet-made missiles locally, then stole across the Kenyan border in speedboats and traditional wooden coasters.
Now a fresh attack may be in the pipeline. The four-man panel says it has information about a newly-arrived weapons consignment believed to be "solely for the purpose of carrying out further terrorist attacks in neighbouring states".
The report also sheds light on recent covert US activities in Somalia, such as "snatch and grab" operations to catch al-Qaeda suspects and paying local warlords to surrender their weapons.
Ancient sea trading routes, particularly across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, provide the backbone of Somalia's illegal arms trade. Every month thousands of traditional dhow boats cross the pirate-infested waters carrying goats, powdered milk, Coca-Cola - and tons of guns, missiles and ammunition.
According to one Somalia analyst, this dispersed smuggling fleet passes literally "under the radar" of American warships patrolling the Gulf in search of al-Qaeda suspects.
Many weapons end up in the bustling arms market of Mogadishu, a city carved up into zones of control by rival warlords. In recent years, al-Qaeda joined the customer list.
A cell led by the wanted Comorean national Fazul Abdallah Mohamed landed on the Indian Ocean coast after the 1998 bombing of US embassies in east Africa.
Posing as lobster fishermen, the team first assembled in Mogadishu in November 2001 for "ideological orientation and arms training", according to the report. Later "sleeper" agents were sent to Kenya in search of potential targets.
When they found them they returned to Mogadishu to buy the weapons - the "Strela 2" surface-to-air missiles which narrowly failed to shoot down an Israeli jet departing Mombasa airport last November.
After the attack surviving cell members returned to Somalia, where they lived on allowances provided by a Sudanese agent. One suspect, Suleiman Ahmed Hemed, was plucked from Mogadishu last April in a joint US-Kenyan "snatch and grab" operation.
However at least four other suspects are believed to be still at large in Somalia. They, or their colleagues, may be planning a fresh attack.
The explosive used in the attack on the Paradise Hotel near Mombasa, which killed 15, may have been bought in Somalia, said investigators. More recently they learned of "attempts by extremist groups to procure explosives on the Mogadishu arms market, as well as ongoing militia training in the use of explosives".
The report also details efforts by US forces and spies to contain the threat from Somali-based terrorists. Warlord Hussein Aideed told investigators he sold 41 surface-to-air missiles to the US last May. Other sources, outside the UN panel, reported persistent rumours that the US made substantial bounty payments to Somali warlords who deliver al-Qaeda suspects.
Sources also say American agents operate from a house in the northern coastal city of Bosaaso. To the south US marines are stationed in northern Kenya, on the Somali border.
If anything, the report highlights the chaos and lawlessness of Somalia, which has been without central government since the dictator Said Barre was toppled in 1991. The country is awash with counterfeit currency, mostly distributed by local businessmen who pass themselves off as the Somali president in Asian money factories.
Over 1,000 flights land on a network of dirt airstrips every month, some with dubious cargoes. Some planes change their registration numbers mid-flight to confuse what air traffic control exists, and two charter companies have been caught using the livery of UN agencies. Another company, Air Bas, is linked to Victor Bout, Africa's most notorious gunrunner.
Peace talks in Nairobi could end the violence, but hopes are low. Instead analysts say the lack of western engagement with Somalia since the disastrous peacekeeping mission of the early 90s has allowed Islamic extremists to get a foothold.
Islamic charities from countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have built schools, mosques and hospitals throughout the country. Many have good intentions but some are helping foster radicalism among normally moderate Somalis, say analysts.
"On the whole Somalia has been left to fester in this mess. And maybe one day they will be blamed, like the Taliban was, for fostering these groups," said a UN official.