Bomb makes problems seem petty

Most people would like to believe a loyalist paramilitary, who said during the week that the "war" in Northern Ireland had come…

Most people would like to believe a loyalist paramilitary, who said during the week that the "war" in Northern Ireland had come to an end at 3.10 p.m. last Saturday.

Today in Omagh, at that time, there will be unbelievable heartbreak as well as sorrow beyond all telling as people mark the first week since that fateful blast.

There is a terrible silence in Omagh: no birds sing in a town that was full of life and joy and laughter until the world turned upside down last weekend.

Omagh deserves to be known for many things, not least that it is the home town of such writers as Brian Friel and Benedict Kiely. A place of fierce local pride, it would be a source of particular dismay to the townsfolk if it were known henceforth as "the town where that bomb went off". But some observers hold to a more optimistic scenario, in which Omagh is seen as the place where, out of so many tragic deaths, a new era was born.

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There will be many politicians in Omagh today but they are expected to keep a low profile, allowing the grief of the ordinary people to find its expression. The Taoiseach will meet Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon after the ceremony to discuss, once more, the way forward and how the new mood for peace can be given practical effect.

The ambiguous nature of the `Real IRA' ceasefire announcement has left some observers guessing. A colleague who spent many years in Lebanon recalled a phrase from his Beirut days: "Ceasefire means reload". Usually reliable sources believe the `Real IRA' stoppage will last and is not just a tactical move. The imminent INLA cessation means the Continuity IRA will be the only paramilitary organisation still at war. The Omagh bomb showed that even a relatively small organisation can do terrible damage so the pressure on CIRA will not ease. Looking at the faces of the mourners at a nationalist funeral in Omagh this week one could only reflect that there will be hell to pay if any paramilitary group sets off a bomb in a public place ever again, no matter how many warnings, botched or otherwise, are given.

To those who know nothing of Northern Ireland it may seem distasteful to engage in the arithmetic of tragedy, but what was different about Omagh was that the casualties came from both sides. Atrocities in the North have tended to affect mainly one side of the community or the other: the Shankill bomb, Greysteel, Darkley, Loughinisland were examples.

Cross-community loss has brought a cross-community response and sources close to the Ulster Unionist leader, David Trimble, have been amazed at the number of people from both sides who told them, everywhere they went, "Keep it going, don't stop". The North's Minister for Political Development, Mr Paul Murphy, reportedly had the same experience, as no doubt did other politicians.

Mr Trimble attended two Catholic and two Protestant funerals. In a normal society, to make such an observation would seem bizarre and uncalled-for but in a deeply-divided community that kind of balance is important. His visit to Buncrana, where he was warmly greeted by his former academic sparring partner, Mrs Mary McAleese, was another indication that Mr Trimble understands the difference between being First Minister and just another party leader.

Mr Trimble can have little to complain about in the package of legislative measures presented by the Taoiseach. Senior UUP sources recalled that Mr Ahern had given commitments on security during the multiparty talks: "He knew, once David said he was going to fly to Dublin, that he had to live up to them."

Civil liberties groups and others with long memories are sceptical about the impact of moves like the increase in the period of detention for paramilitary suspects from two to four days. Mr Ahern must know that he has taken a political gamble and it was reportedly made clear to the UUP delegation when it came to Dublin that "it takes two to tango".

Speculation is now growing about a possible handshake between the Sinn Fein and UUP leaders but sources in both organisations pooh-poohed the idea. Idealists and dreamers would love to see it taking place during the Clinton visit: the stage of the Waterfront Hall has a good history in that regard. There is no indication that this will happen, although there is a lot of wishing and hoping - and even some work behind the scenes.

On Good Friday evening, after the Belfast Agreement was finally wrapped up, Mr Trimble emerged to tell the news media he wanted Sinn Fein to declare that the war was over. Senior republicans in the vicinity swore heavily under their breath.

And nobody should hold their breath waiting for such a declaration from Sinn Fein, which does not regard itself as being at war. In addition, it sees the conflict as a two-sided process: as far as republicans are concerned, Britain is at war too. But the pressure from Mr Trimble continues, although his words are becoming more measured, calculated and subtle. On UTV last night he said he wanted to hear "something" to convey that Sinn Fein was "condemning the violence on the basis that it was something they will put behind them permanently".

He was more diplomatic still on the BBC when he acknowledged that if "a unionist says something specific it then creates a problem" but he was giving Sinn Fein "the opportunity to use the words and to put in place the actions that they know are necessary".

For its part, Sinn Fein averted a considerable amount of potential odium by its relatively early condemnation of the Omagh blast and even some unionists have privately acknowledged this. But there is a note of gloom in, for example, the keynote commentary piece in this week's issue of An Phoblacht/Republican News.

Referring to the bombers only as "the splinter group", the anonymous author sums up the effect of the Omagh blast: "Repression has moved to the top of the political agenda; the sterile decommissioning argument has been revived; the name of Irish republicanism has been sullied."

Independent observers have remarked that, as soon as Sinn Fein declares the war to be over or words to that effect, the next logical question will be: when is the IRA going to be disbanded? While militant nationalist opinion would probably not favour an end to the Provisional IRA ceasefire, it might not yet be ready to dispense with an organisation which, despite the sceptics, it sees as some form of protection against loyalist attacks. We are probably, therefore, about to enter a period of prolonged republican ambiguity, of a kind not seen since de Valera's heyday.

The Assembly is due to resume its deliberations on September 14th but there may be an informal gathering of its members to listen to President Clinton when he comes to Belfast on September 3rd. ?the September 14th meeting may not last for long, as the new body has not yet devised a set of standing orders to govern its deliberations.

Meanwhile, the politicians are going back to school again on Tuesday with classes and lectures from civil servants and academics on the nuts and bolts of setting up a new system of government.

Some observers believe the public mood is such that what seemed important political differences in the past will now begin to look like bickering. They believe the parties on all sides will come under pressure to get over the stumbling-blocks that still exist and to ensure that the obscenity which took place in Omagh at 3.10 p.m. last Saturday will not be repeated.

"No surrender" and "Tiocfaidh ar la" may be replaced by a new slogan: "Never again."