Bolivian president Evo Morales, whose left-wing economic policies have made him broadly popular with Bolivia’s poor but angered business leaders, was expected to win re-election yesterday, allowing him to expand state control over the economy.
A victory for Mr Morales would solidify his dominance over Bolivian politics and further weaken a divided conservative opposition tied to the country’s business elite.
Opinion polls show Mr Morales, an ally of Venezuela’s socialist president, Hugo Chávez, winning easily with more than 50 per cent support. To avoid a run-off vote, he needs to garner more than 40 per cent and hold a 10-point lead over his closest rival.
His Movement Toward Socialism party is also expected to win control of congress.
Mr Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president, nationalised the energy industry in his first term, which generated a windfall for state coffers that he has used to boost social spending.
The cash payments to school children, new mothers and the elderly have added to his popularity among Bolivia’s disenfranchised indigenous majority, who celebrated his defeat of the country’s long-ruling traditional parties four years ago. “Evo is helping us; he gave me a pension, said Tomas Gutiérrez Chura (83), a retired bus driver who voted in the town of Huatajata on the shores of Lake Titicaca.
A former llama herder and coca-leaf farmer raised in extreme poverty, Mr Morales faces two conservative rivals: Manfred Reyes Villa, a former governor and army captain who has about 20 per cent support in opinion polls, and wealthy cement magnate Samuel Doria Medina, who stands at about 10 per cent.
Mr Morales has cast himself as the only candidate able to bring prosperity to the poor, and many Bolivians living in rural areas identify with his humble origins.
He successfully pushed an overhaul of the constitution in a referendum earlier this year that allowed him to seek a previously prohibited second term, following moves by other Latin American leaders who have sought to extend term limits.
Mr Morales vows to extend the hand of the state deeper into Bolivia’s gas- and mineral-rich economy to redistribute wealth in South America’s poorest country. He plans to launch state-run paper, cement and drug companies and develop lithium, iron and petrochemical projects to generate more revenue for welfare programmes.
Critics argue that the cash payments are a way of buying political support and do little to lift Bolivians permanently out of poverty.
The government argues the numbers of poor are falling and the subsidies have spurred growth during the global economic slowdown. Some 60 per cent of Bolivians live in poverty even though Bolivia is home to the second-largest deposits of natural gas in South America after Venezuela.
Critics also say Mr Morales, an Aymara Indian, has fuelled political polarisation between the Andean west, where indigenous groups are a majority, and eastern regions where violent anti-government protests broke out last year.