Ulster Unionist leader Mr David Trimble is to hold "crunch" talks with British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair this afternoon that could determine whether or not Assembly elections take place as scheduled at the end of May.
Mr Blair is expected to come under private pressure from the UUP leader to postpone the elections until the autumn, even though publicly, Mr Trimble is stating that he and his party are prepared for electoral battle.
Mr Blair could, even at this late stage, accede to Mr Trimble's request, informed sources said last night, notwithstanding the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen's insistence yesterday that the elections should go ahead on May 29th.
This Blair-Trimble encounter has the potential to be a stormy meeting. Asked yesterday would he view Mr Blair confirming elections as an act of betrayal Mr Trimble, rather than say yes or no, replied: "You are inviting me to say something that would be fairly stark."
"This could be one of the crunch moments of recent years," said a senior London source, conscious of the tensions surrounding today's meeting. Meanwhile contacts continued throughout yesterday between the British and Irish governments, and republicans in the effort to obtain a clear statement from the IRA that it is ending all paramilitary activity.
UK Unionist Party leader Mr Robert McCartney dismissively characterised the governments' positive response to Mr Adams' Sunday speech and the continuing efforts to persuade the IRA to clarify that it will cease all activity as: "The completely unappeasable clarifying the totally inexplicable to the absolutely gullible."
Senior British and Irish ministers and officials, however, still believe they can succeed in persuading the IRA - with Mr Adams again possibly representing the views of the organisation - to state that it will end punishment attacks, targeting, procuring weapons, etc.
"The central focus of our work, even as I speak, is to try and resolve the one outstanding question that everyone wants to see resolved," said Mr Cowen yesterday.
"And if we were to do that, that would provide the most positive and constructive atmosphere in which these elections would be held."
Mr Blair's chief spokesman last night refused to speculate on whether the election would proceed on May 29th. The immediate emphasis was on obtaining an IRA pledge to end all activity, he said. "We are still working on the third question, we are still seeking clarity."
Irish sources said they expected a judgment about whether a deal was possible, and whether the Assembly elections should go ahead, to be made by the end of this week. Theoretically, however, the uncertainty could go on until next Tuesday when nominations for the contest close. Privately, Dublin sources conceded yesterday that even if there was a clear IRA statement, it was unlikely Mr Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Council would sign up to a deal before May 29th.
However a clear IRA response would add to pressure to hold the elections as planned, and would also raise the questions of whether the two governments should publish their Hillsborough blueprint for restoring devolution.
Mr Cowen insisted yesterday that the Government believed the Assembly elections should go ahead whatever happened. "We believe, having deferred the elections to May 29th, that they should now proceed. That's our view and we are entitled to hold that view." Dublin and London sources believe that if the IRA delivers a positive answer to Mr Blair's question - will IRA activity cease? - that elections almost certainly would take place. Without a positive answer the prospect of elections is more problematic, according to London at least.
If the IRA provides the required clarity and the election is confirmed, the governments hope that Mr Blair can convince Mr Trimble to accept that decision and fight his campaign on a platform that he as Ulster Unionist leader had pressurised the IRA into giving three commitments: to decommission all weapons, to end its "war", and to cease all actions now.
There was also speculation last night that, as a possible compromise and to allow Mr Trimble better prepare his party for the Assembly poll, Mr Blair could defer the election until sometime in June.