IRAQ: Iraq's resistance will gain many recruits if daily life does not quickly improve, writes Michael Jansen.
Yesterday's blitz on Baghdad may mark an abrupt escalation of the resistance campaign against the US occupying forces. The carefully calculated and co-ordinated attacks ranged over the entire city - from Karrada and Jadriya in the centre to al-Baya in the west to al-Sayida in the south-west and al-Khadra in the north - and took place between 8.30 and 9.15 a.m., during the morning rush hour when Baghdadis were bringing their children to schools and going to work or shops.
The objective was to demonstrate to Iraqis that the occupation forces cannot deliver security. This onslaught cannot but further alienate Iraqis from the US presence as well as make them fearful of the resistance. A poll released last weekend revealed that only 23 per cent believe the US could make their cities safe.
Over the past few weeks resistance operations have grown more frequent, more widespread and more lethal, taking the lives of more and more Iraqis, US soldiers and foreign civilians in the country. Yesterday's multiple car bombings came on the heels of Sunday's rocket attack on the Rashid Hotel at a time the US deputy Defence Secretary, Mr Paul Wolfowitz, the architect of the Bush administration's war on Iraq, was staying at the hotel. That strike was seen as a demonstration of the capacity of the resistance to hit "hardened" sites - surrounded by walls, razor wire, tanks and troops - at will. Yesterday's bloody incidents against "soft" targets - Red Cross headquarters and police stations - demonstrated that the resistance has married ferocity to effectively planned and executed assaults. Resistance groups engaged in this campaign obviously do not care how many Iraqis become collateral victims of their attacks as long as the occupation regime is hit.
While no organisation or group has claimed these spectacular strikes or similar operations which began in August, the US blames "dead-enders", Saddam Hussein "loyalists", and foreign "al-Qaeda terrorists". Dr Salman al-Jumali, professor of political science at Baghdad University who has studied the background of those killed in resistance operations, disputes the US assessment. In his view, Saddam loyalists and foreign fighters do not play a major role. He told al-Jazeera that the "vast majority of them are \ Islamists - I mean Sunni and Shia Muslims - who are fighting for the sole purpose of pushing America out of Iraq". The Islamists are joined by nationalists, including Christians and Turkomen.
He says these elements have formed dozens of resistance groups, with none predominating. However, some of these groups seem to have set up a joint command.
Early this month, the National Front for the Liberation of Iraq, formed during the war by secular and religious members of the elite Republican Guard, issued a statement, published on the IslamOnline website. The communiqué said that "after intensive contacts with a number of armed Iraqi groups and Arab volunteers who flocked to the country ahead of the US-led invasion, a unified resistance command has now been forged".
The statement revealed that at least 10 groups, including elements from the Saddam Fedayeen militia and Baathists not loyal to Saddam, had deployed throughout the country. These particular groups would be well placed to pursue a concerted strategy because many, if not most, of their members would either be former officers and soldiers from the disbanded armed forces or civilians with some military experience. The front predicted the scale of resistance operations would expand, warned the international community not to send troops to Iraq, and said "collaborators", such as policemen, politicians and civil servants serving the occupation regime, would be punished.
An Iraqi source consulted by The Irish Times said warnings had been issued about an escalation during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which began either Sunday or yesterday, the day being in dispute between Iraqi sectarian factions. For devout Muslim Iraqis, the occupation of their country during the holy month of Ramadan deepens the humiliation and outrage they feel over the US invasion and installation of foreign rule. Ramadan has also gained importance because a number of Iraqi political figures have said the window of opportunity for the US to succeed in Iraq will close after the Feast of Sacrifice, which ends the fast. This means Washington must effect some major improvements on the ground over the next month for it to stem dwindling credibility.
Iraqis are increasingly frustrated by uncertain supplies of electricity and water, the lack of telephones, petrol shortages, 60 per cent unemployment, checkpoints, personal and household searches, the risk of getting caught up in firefights between US troops and opponents, and assaults by carjackers, kidnappers, housebreakers and thieves as well as being killed or maimed by operations mounted by anti-occupation forces. If the US occupation administration cannot effect major improvements in Iraqis' daily lives quickly, a flood of new recruits can be expected to join the resistance.
While the strategic objective of all resistance groups is the withdrawal of the US from Iraq, they disagree profoundly about what happens next. A retired member of the ousted Baath Party said elements in the Republican Guard, Saddam Fedayeen and Baathist Party favour a return of the Baath party to power without Saddam. Demobilised members of the armed forces prefer a military regime while budding democrats seek a liberal, pluralist system based on the rule of secular law. Sunni and Shia Islamists, who may be a majority, want Iraq to become an Islamic state. But while they may agree that the source of law should be Sharia, Islamic law, they diverge on who should govern - devout laymen or clerics or a mix of the two.
In the run-up to the war, authoritative Middle East analysts predicted Iraqis would resist an occupation and, ultimately, could resort to civil war to decide the future government of their country. The struggle for dominance in Iraq since the collapse of the Ottoman empire early last century has always been a contest between these very forces. The Baath Party kept a lid on them during its 35 years in power, but the US unleashed them when it toppled Saddam. Unless the US gets a grip on the situation soon and imposes an Iraqi government, as the British did in the 1920s, the occupation could become untenable and Iraq could be abandoned to civil strife, chaos and, perhaps, dismemberment.