Mercedes' American nightmare

At the Frankfurt motor show last month, Dieter Zetsche, the chief executive of Chrysler of the US, had lost his usual sparkle…

At the Frankfurt motor show last month, Dieter Zetsche, the chief executive of Chrysler of the US, had lost his usual sparkle. Across the hall at the display of Mitsubishi, Chrysler's Japanese sister company, Rolf Eckrodt, its chief executive, was equally downbeat.

Even Jürgen Hubbert, head of the Mercedes car division which drives the profits of Germany's DaimlerChrysler group, was in a contrite mood, owning up to problems with the electronics of the luxury cars.

DaimlerChrysler, the world's fifth-biggest carmaker, certainly has a lot to be remorseful about. Five years after the $36bn deal that saw Germany's Daimler-Benz acquire Chrysler, the smallest of the US "big three" auto manufacturers, nothing is going right.

Chrysler lost €948m ($1.1bn) in the second quarter alone. Mitsubishi, 37.1 per cent owned by DaimlerChrysler, has delayed by up to two years its turnround plan because of Y50bn ($420m) of bad loans in the US. Mercedes, while highly profitable, is criticised by financial analysts for profit margins that remain below those of rival BMW.

READ MORE

Steve Cheetham, auto analyst at Sanford C Bernstein in London, said: "It was a big investment banking deal done at the top of the market. We all know how much value those add."

There is no immediate danger. Mercedes remains a cash cow and the balance sheet is strong. But there has been growing discussion among industry observers about what Daimler can do to recover from the cash drain that Chrysler has become and whether the deal could even be reversed.

Manfred Gentz, chief financial officer, dismisses such suggestions as not even worth considering. "We do not want to divest Chrysler," he says. "That is all stupid talk and speculation. You cannot run a company with a constant back-up plan. Our message is clear: we stand by Chrysler and will co-operate with Chrysler."

Analysts accept his position in part because Chrysler's financial problems run so deep that a buyer would be likely to demand money to take it off Daimler's hands.

"Chrysler can't function independently of Daimler now," says Stephen Reitman, auto analyst at Merrill Lynch. "To spin it off would require so much capital they might as well try to fix it themselves."

For two years the attempt to repair Chrysler looked well worthwhile: cost-cutting ran far ahead of target and Mr Zetsche oversaw an impressive 8.3 per cent improvement in productivity last year.

This year the repair project was supposed to move into its second stage, shifting its focus from costs to revenues. The first of 25 new models due in the next three years began to arrive, led by the Pacifica crossover and the Dodge Durango offroader, due in showrooms next month.

But the much-touted Pacifica has not reached sales targets, partly due to high prices - part of Mr Zetsche's plan to push the Chrysler marque upmarket.

"There was a disconnect between the price and what people thought they knew about the Chrysler brand," James Kenyon, a Chrysler spokesman, says.

The company puts the blame on the fierce price war being waged by US carmakers, which has left consumers too focused on special deals to notice Chrysler's quality and design improvements. But Mr Zetsche continues to insist that "ultimately our defence [in the price war], which will become an offence, is product".

There is no doubt that the US division has suffered from too few new vehicles, while rivals - particularly the Japanese - have refreshed their line up and have a far lower average model age.

The problem Chrysler faces is that, even with nine new launches next year, it will still face increased competition in its two most profitable areas - people carriers, known as minivans in the US, and pick-up trucks.

Saul Rubin and Xavier Gunner, analysts at UBS, believe this extra competition will "easily offset" the new models on the way, leading to a doubling of operating losses from €300m this year to €600m next.

The depth of the problems have even had an effect on Mr Schrempp, architect of the merger, who no longer describes the deal in the optimistic tones he once used. But, while a note of realism has crept into his presentations, he is a long way from apologising to shareholders.

"Something got delayed on the time axis but one to two years are nothing on the scale," he told journalists at the Frankfurt show. "We have seen a setback at Chrysler but its substance is clearly better than three years ago."

"We are best positioned of all the global car makers. The group is moving in the right direction."