When London's Mayor Ken Livingston introduced congestion charging three months ago, his critics said the £5 charge would cause a band of traffic four kilometers deep to encircle the city for up to six hours a day. They predicted a 3mph average speed would engulf large parts of the city.
It's early days, but the harbingers of doom have slipped quietly into the background. There's been no motorists' revolt and trains and buses are coping with extra demand thanks to 11,000 extra bus seats.
Initial problems, which saw some commuters unable to pay the fee and others get fines for not paying even though they were nowhere near London at the time, appear to be sorted out. Predictions of increased journey times have also proven wrong, although not all commuters are reporting shorter journeys in and out of the congestion zone.
Business groups are divided over the scheme. Some small retailers report a 40 per cent drop in business, but is this due entirely to the effects of congestion charging or the fear factor around the Iraq war.
What is certain is that there's been a 20 per cent drop in the number of cars entering central London and speeds are up. The city's coffers are benefiting too which will lead to improved public transport.
The scheme's success has aroused interest in other clogged cities, not least Dublin. Engineers behind the scheme say, of the 70 cities to express an interest in congestion charging, New York, Dublin and Milan are particularly keen. The former head of congestion charging and architect of London's scheme, Derek Turner, visited Dublin to see how traffic doesn't flow.
Having completed the London project, Turner has struck out on his own to offer his expertise to cities dealing with similar congestion issues.
Last week delegations from 70 cities gathered in London for a detailed briefing. However, despite reports of Dublin's interest and Turner's recent visit, we didn't have an official representative at the event. The Department of Transport didn't send anybody. Nor did the Dublin Transportation Office - nor Dublin City Council.
Why wasn't anyone from Official Ireland there? Firstly, congestion charging is a politically charged issue. Few politicians have Ken Livingston's bottle for such a radical scheme. The lead-in time to the scheme could possibly coincide with an election year and Dublin's commuters are also more than one third of the country's voters.
Secondly, before congestion charging can be introduced, public transport must be functioning and efficient. In London 86 per cent of commuters used public transport before the charge was introduced. For that proportion of Dublin's commuters to use public transport would require radical improvements. Luas would have to be running smoothly, the Dublin Port Tunnel would have to be open and the bus fleet greatly expanded.
The Transport Minister's planned deregulation of Dublin's bus routes and his plan to break up the CIE group of companies suggest that, if Seamus Brennan does have a long-term plan to introduce congestion charging, he will not follow the London template.
The Dublin Transportation Office says congestion charging is just one of a range of options being assessed in the Demand for Travel report it has just commissioned. That report will take a year at least to compile.
Successive contacts with the Department of Transport failed to get a position on the issue from the minister, but the AA in a recent meeting with him was given assurances that congestion charging was not on the cards. The AA was told that "there was no question of a congestion charge until after the medium term", when the option would be back on the table for review.
So, in the meantime can we at least have proper cycle lanes across the city?