Likelihood of NI Protocol deal this week slips as Sunak faces down opposition

The chances of Britain and the European Union agreeing a deal to resolve the years-long standoff over Northern Ireland’s post-Brexit arrangements this week appear to be slipping as British prime minister Rishi Sunak wards off domestic pushback.

EU diplomats had been told to be ready at short notice to review a potential deal on the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol that was anticipated to land Monday or Tuesday this week.

But there are now indications that a deal is not expected by Wednesday, which means the timetable may slip beyond this week as a deal would be unlikely to be announced to coincide with or risk overshadowing the solemn first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Friday.

There is ongoing co-ordination between political leaders and officials to try to co-ordinate a deal that can avoid a major rebellion in the hard-Brexit wing of Sunak’s Conservative party and persuade the Democratic Unionist Party to return to Stormont and restore Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions.

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In a video call on Monday, British foreign minister James Cleverly and Northern Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris spoke with the European Commission’s point man on the Protocol Maroš Šefčovič to take stock of the talks.

“Hard work continues. We’ve agreed to meet later this week,” Mr Šefčovič said in a social media message following the call.

He reiterated that the aim was to find “joint solutions to everyday concerns in Northern Ireland” and that the priority is “to succeed for the benefit of all communities”.

Mr Cleverly said a solution must be “durable” and that they would speak again “in the coming days”.

The EU’s emphasis on matters of everyday concern in the North reflects reluctance to be drawn into a major compromise regarding the role of the European Court of Justice, a matter of principle for the hard-Brexit wing of the Conservative party that has little public purchase in Northern Ireland.

[ Analysis: Rishi Sunak is learning he can’t please everyone on Northern Ireland protocol ]

Talks between the two sides made major headway on the treatment of goods destined for Northern Ireland from Britain and how to reduce checks and paperwork, but agreement on the ECJ has remained difficult to land politically due to the distance between the demands of the pro-Brexit wing of the Conservative Party and what the EU can agree to.

Another point of discussion in the talks is how to build more democratic representation for Northern Ireland into consultations over new EU laws that the territory will have to follow, as it remains within the Single Market in order to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland.

Tánaiste Micheál Martin suggested that that the United States was willing to offer economic “supports” for the North if a deal could be clinched and that great opportunities lay for businesses in its simultaneous access to the British and EU markets.

“I think an opportunity is presenting itself,” Mr Martin said as he arrived for a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels dedicated to discussing support for Ukraine.

“The United States are very keen on the economic side to give additional supports, the European Union stands ready on that side, and I know the UK and the Irish government stand ready.”

Over the weekend former prime minister Boris Johnson was reported to have urged Mr Sunak to maintain the option of unilaterally introducing legislation to override the Protocol, something toxic to agreement with the EU as it deems this a clear breach of faith and international law.

Mr Martin appealed to politicians elsewhere to stop “playing politics” with Northern Ireland’s future.

“I think what’s really important is that everybody now from here on think about the people of Northern Ireland, not power play, not politics elsewhere,” Mr Martin said.

“I think the people of Northern Ireland have had enough of that, of people playing politics with their future.”