Surge in winter viruses to put health service under ‘highest pressure’ ever, HSE warns

An expected surge in winter virus infections over the coming weeks is likely to put the health service under “the highest pressure” it has ever experienced, the HSE has said.

In a statement on Thursday night, it said forecasts suggest that “we may see over 900 patients in hospital with flu in the first week in January with that number likely continuing to rise further” as the month goes on.

“Regarding Covid-19 and other respiratory viruses, we are now seeing a higher number of hospitalised cases this winter than had been anticipated in our more pessimistic projections,” it said.

There were 656 people in hospital with Covid-19 on Thursday morning, an increase of 30 on the previous day. The number of patients with the disease in intensive care has more than doubled in three days to 26. Some 1,200 people with respiratory conditions are currently in hospital, the HSE said.

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‘Unusual upsurge’ of invasive strep A resulted in 30 deaths, including 12 children

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A National Crisis Management Team has been put in place to oversee the response and HSE chief executive Stephen Mulvany said “services around the country have made and are implementing plans to address the forthcoming pressure”.

“It is now looking increasingly likely that we will see the demand for health services rising well above anything we have seen before,” he said. “We are working to ensure that every available resource is mobilised and utilised to respond to the needs of our patients who are seeking urgent and emergency care.”

The HSE expects the surge in respiratory illnesses to “seriously impact” hospitals and emergency departments and to “place primary care services such as GP and GP out-of-hours services under further pressure”. It urged people eligible for and due to be vaccinated to do so as soon as possible.

Earlier, it emerged that the number of cases of invasive strep A had doubled this year compared to last, leading to seven deaths, including four among children in the space of three months. While cases have increased in recent weeks, public health officials say overall numbers are broadly similar to the years before the Covid-19 pandemic.

So far this year, 73 invasive group A strep (iGAS) cases have been notified to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC). Nineteen were in children aged under 10, compared to 22 for the same period in 2019.

More than half of this year’s cases (39) have been reported since the beginning of October, according to the HPSC, including nine in children aged under 10. Since then, there have been four deaths in children, three among under-10s and one of a child aged 10-18.

One of the four children was Saoirse O’Sullivan, a fourth-class pupil at Scoil Naomh Iosaf in Riverstown, Glanmire, Co Cork, who died on Monday. In Northern Ireland, Stella-Lily McCorkindale (five) died earlier this month after being admitted to the Royal Victoria Hospital with a Strep A infection.

[ What is strep A and what are the symptoms? ]

Group A streptococcus is a common bacteria, which many people carry harmlessly in their throats and on their skin. However, it can cause serious infection. The most dangerous form occurs when it becomes invasive, such as when it enters the lungs or bloodstream. In rare cases iGAS infections can be fatal.

A common presentation of strep A in children can be scarlet fever which causes symptoms such as fever, a raised rash which can feel rough to the touch like sandpaper, sore throat and a swollen tongue. The first signs of scarlet fever can be flu-like symptoms, including a high temperature, a sore throat and swollen neck glands. A rash appears 12 to 48 hours later, first on the chest and stomach and then spreading.

The HPSC said there is no evidence that a new strain of iGAS is circulating and that the increase in cases is most likely related to high amounts of circulating bacteria and a return to more normal social mixing patterns after the pandemic.

“The pattern and trends of iGAS cases are slightly different this year and the situation is being monitored closely,” a HSE spokesman said. “Overall, the numbers of iGAS deaths, including paediatric deaths, are very small and the current situation is not discernibly different from the pre-pandemic years. This is not outside what we would expect.”

Separately, four people have died this year from meningococcal disease, the HPSC said. A total of 27 cases have been notified so far this year, compared to 71 in the same period before the pandemic in 2019. Six of the case were reported in December, but the HPSC said this is not an outbreak.

“Meningococcal disease is known to have increased incidence in winter and early spring. Among the 27 cases, different age groups were affected from different parts of the country. Where known, the strain type is serogroup B. There are no links found between the cases.”