To the surprise of many and contrary to past experience, it is the Government that appears to be holding the line on pay, so far, in its dispute with the nurses.

If anything, it is the nursing unions which, even before the strike started yesterday morning, were making conciliatory moves. On Sunday, after the Minister for Health, Brian Cowen, made his coded invitation to the unions to attend pre-strike talks, for the first time in this lengthy dispute the unions acknowledged that the pay claim would have to be considered against the backdrop of "existing social agreements".

To date, the nursing unions, which have a 23 per cent offer on the table, have argued that nurses' pay has been consistently ignored through the years, and consequently any solution could not be restrained by the limits of any national pay agreement.

However, three out of the four unions in the alliance of nursing unions signed the same national agreement. It is also worth pointing out that the 23 per cent on the table for the nurses is almost four times the maximum 6 per cent increase that was offered to, and accepted by, many public servants under the same agreement.

This contrasting position is at the heart of the dispute and explains why such a critical situation has been allowed to develop in the health service. If the Government yields to the nurses it will be swamped with follow-on claims from other public sector unions, signalling the death-knell of partnership.

In a sense, it is perhaps easier for the Government to hold against the nurses, as it represents the lesser of two evils. While it hardly expects public support for opposing the nurses, the alternative - the collapse of partnership and the expected consequential surge in pay demands - could have disastrous effects for the economy.

Earlier this month the Taoiseach gave some insight into Government thinking when he made an impassioned plea to the nurses to protect the partnership process. Mr Ahern said he had "devoted a great deal of my political career to devising and implementing the social partnership process." The implication was that he was not going to allow partnership slip away that easily.

If the unions ignored this at first, the fact that they have now even acknowledged the existence of a national agreement represents a significant step.

The Government's resolve is also made easier by the fact that it has the unofficial support of most of the other public sector unions, if not ICTU itself. ICTU, after all, is a social partner, and as a signatory to the national pay agreement on behalf of all its constituent unions, including the nursing unions, it must ensure they all abide by the agreement. ICTU cannot demand that the Government and the employers, as the other two social partners, pay up on their side if it cannot deliver its part of the deal.

This explains why the Minister for Health effectively referred the problem to ICTU after the pre-strike meeting on Monday. From the Government's perspective this was a classic move in that it put the onus on ICTU to resolve the problem, while at the same time distancing itself from any failure.

Any suggestion, however, that the unions' conciliatory gesture and ICTU's involvement mean a solution is in the bag would be wide of the mark.

ICTU now has the unenviable task of ensuring that whatever package emerges will, on the one hand, entice the nurses off the picket lines, and on the other, ensure that it stays within public sector guidelines, so avoiding any follow-on claims from the other unions.

In practice, as part of its role in the dispute, ICTU will have to secure a commitment from the other public sector unions that they will not seek to follow a return-to-work deal. Of course, they can only give that commitment if any such deal is not wildly out of line with what it has agreed on behalf of its members. Given that the nurses already have been offered four times what, for example, the teachers have accepted, this leaves little margin for error.

Lenore Mrkwicka, of the largest nursing union, the INO, has conceded that the 2 per cent available under the local bargaining clause of Partnership 2000 - to date unclaimed by the nurses - could be included in any package. This is another conciliatory move on the part of the unions, as hitherto they have argued that their claim is outstanding business under the previous national agreement, the PCW, and could not be corralled by the 2 per cent which is part of the current national agreement.

However, even here it will be difficult to "shoehorn" the alliance's claim for parity with paramedics, which would require a further increase of 7 to 8 per cent, into a clause worth 2 per cent. It will be all the more difficult given that every other union, including most ominously the gardai, who have also rejected their pay offer of 4.5 per cent, will be watching like hawks as to how this particular "three-card-trick" will be done.

Any attempt to load this 2 per cent on the top of the nurses' scale, which would facilitate a larger increase for those on the maximum, will also be closely monitored by the teachers, who have already accepted this 2 per cent in a straightforward manner on all points.

ICTU has suggested that direct talks between the unions and the Government should take place, with any outstanding matters referred on to the Labour Court. Certainly, the Labour Court will have to get involved at some stage as it has dealt with many "outstanding" matters from the nurses.

The ultimate aim here may be to do some form of deal with the nurses which will ease a return to work while the "outstanding" issues could be faced once the social partners have another national agreement in the bag.

If an acceptable formula materialises from the combined efforts of the social partners, the key issue then will be the timing of the offer. If it is offered too early it may be rejected, and if it is left too late the effect on nurses' morale may damage the health services in the long term. Also, a quick offer from the Government will be noted by the gardai and indeed the paramedics themselves, who are preparing for their own pay row.

Martin Frawley is assistant editor of Industrial Relations News