The Banshees of Inisherin: An uncomfortable question edges forward. Could it walk away with no Oscars?

Whatever happens at the Oscars on March 12th, nobody can fault Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell for their contribution to the cause. Since The Banshees of Inisherin premiered at Venice in early September, the two stars have appeared on every red carpet, done every chatshow and graced every necessary awards bash. They were there at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards on Sunday night to see the film fail to convert any of its record-equalling five nominations into wins. Both remained good sports as Everything Everywhere all At Once grabbed everything it could possibly grab.

An uncomfortable question now edges forward. Could the most-nominated Irish film ever at the Oscars walk away with nothing? Could Kerry Condon now be its most likely winner? Or will there be no Irish winners anywhere? Yes, yes and no.

Turf accountants, better at horses than actors, are never that reliable on awards ceremonies, but, for what it’s worth, a “major high-street bookmaker” (as the English say) now has Banshees as favourite for none of the nine races in which it competes. Its slimmest odds are in best original screenplay where, at 10/11, it sits just behind favourite Everything Everywhere at 4/5.

Everything Everywhere All At Once won best picture at the PGA and the DGA. It also took best ensemble at SAG. Only one film in history has taken all three and not triumphed at the Oscars

Seen as being in a three-horse race with Brendan Fraser, from The Whale, and Austin Butler, from Elvis, just two weeks ago, Farrell, following losses at Bafta and SAG, has now drifted out to a distant 12/1. Condon, at 7/4, is joint-second favourite for best supporting actress behind Angela Bassett at 11/8. Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson will enjoy their evening aware that nobody is getting past Ke Huy Quan in best supporting actor.

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It has taken a long journey through the awards-season weeds to get to this place. Banshees looked to have the wind behind it when it topped the nominations table at The Golden Globes in December. A month later, it went on to beat a little film called Everything Everywhere All At Once to best comedy or musical at the ceremony itself. But the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which gives out those awards, is a small, eccentric body and, as the name implies, is largely composed of “overseas” voters. By then, it was already clear that Everything Everywhere all At Once, a science-fiction comedy, was considerably more popular in the United States than it was outside that country. The real test would come with the Guild awards – professional bodies such as the Producers Guild of America, the Directors Guild of America and, yes, the Screen Actors Guild, many of whose members actually vote for the Oscars.

We need talk no longer about the top prize. Everything Everywhere All At Once won best picture at the PGA and the DGA. It also took best ensemble at SAG. Only one film in history has taken all three and not triumphed at the Oscars. You have to go back to 1995 when Braveheart passed out Apollo 13 to find that anomaly. With a surge like that behind it, the film really could manage an Oscar sweep that would force it past Banshees to the best original screenplay prize.

Condon has been on an odd class of roll. It is worth remembering that when, way back in September, it emerged early front-runner Michelle Williams was competing in best actress, rather than best supporting actress, for The Fabelmans, most Oscar punters installed Condon as the new anointed one (Fabelmans later faded as a force). Then Black Panther: Wakanda Forever arrived and the world decided Angela Bassett was surely about to receive one of those unofficial “career Oscars” for her statuesque, if undemanding, performance as the title character’s bereaved mother. A win at the Golden Globes – not natural territory for superhero movies – pulled the odds in to unbackable numbers.

It was Bafta and SAG that brought Condon back into the picture. Her win at the British awards was no great surprise, but Bassett had perhaps been the narrowest of favourites. Counter-intuitively, Condon’s loss to Jamie Lee Curtis at SAG was even more significant. Bassett was no longer anything like the runaway front-runner and the Tipperary woman was back in the race. Curtis was, of course, also elevated, but she has to get past another actor from Everything Everywhere, Stephanie Hsu, in the same category. Vote-splitting could be a factor.

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That Bafta loss to Austin Butler looked like the end for Farrell. We may not enjoy hearing it, but the British awards play like a home game for Banshees. The black comedy was produced by Film4 and triumphed in Best British film. If he couldn’t win there it seemed unlikely he could score at the American awards. SAG looked like the only way back, but, in the event, Brendan Fraser edged past favourite Butler to take best male actor. Last year, every single individual acting winner at SAG converted at the Oscars. CODA’s win in best ensemble belatedly swung it into favourite for best picture and a few weeks later it duly took that prize. This year’s acting awards seem more volatile. Only Ke Huy Quan looks certain to convert, but Farrell’s duck egg at SAG and, particularly, Bafta has definitely relegated him to trailing third place.

[ The Banshees of Inisherin film review: An impeccable cast eats up the succulent dialogue ]

Irish talent will, however, almost certainly win. Back in 2016, when Room and Brooklyn broke new ground for the Irish at the Oscars, the only domestic person to triumph was Ben Cleary for best live action short. Tom Berkeley and Ross White, up in the same category this year for the well-received An Irish Goodbye, could read that as good omen. The folk behind the much-loved An Cailín Ciúin will know that it will be a fight to get past All Quiet on the Western Front (1/33 with bookies), a film nominated in best picture, in the best international film category. But we can, at least, count on Richard Baneham, Tallaght boffin, triumphing in best visual effects for Avatar: The Way of Water. There is that.

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