THE Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, has given a cautious and cagey welcome to the peace initiative from Mr Tony Blair and the decommissioning document produced by the Bntish and Irish governments.

Nevertheless, Mr Adams signalled that he was at least open to the idea of doing business. But he also gave voice to the nagging worry in republican circles that this might be another trap. After the last ceasefire, republicans spent 17 months waiting to get into talks only to conclude that London was not serious and had decided she IRA would just wither and die.

Alas for its victims, this has not happened. Since February 9th last year republicans have been practising macho politics to show the Brits they still have a nasty sting.

Sources close to republican thinking say the first ceasefire was a "top down" affair; decided at the highest level and handed down to the rest of the movement as a fait accompli.

The next "cessation" has to be sold to the middle ranks of the movement at least. It will not be an easy task. General Mistrust is causing more havoc in the North than any other military figure.

The more politically oriented members of the movement must know that Mr Blair has now made what is probably the last best offer any British government can come up with, short of the unrealistic option of "troops out".

The difficulty for Mr Adams is that, if there is a ceasefire and he leads his party into talks, then the deal he gets must be seen by his followers as a significant step towards - the dream of a united Ireland.

And he will not get a ceasefire unless the military wing of the movement is convinced that this is a better way of making progress towards the ultimate goal. He cannot have republican parents standing up to say: "My son/daughter didn't die for a cross Border tourist board".

In that context, the statement by Mr Blair in the Commons on the need for "a new AngloIrish agreement" assumes particular significance. With this remark, the Prime Minister was dangling a carrot before unionists and republicans at the same time.

Obviously unionists would love to see the current AngloIrish pact gutted and the Irish civil servants packing their bags to leave Maryfield.

The republican movement, on the other hand, wants an interim settlement which would be a down payment on a united Ireland. This implies a beefed up role for Dublin in the affairs of the North: not necessarily joint sovereignty but stronger than the present position where the Irish can put forward views and proposals on aspects of Northern Ireland affairs but have no formal role in decision making.

This is where the part played by Mr Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach could prove crucial. The republican perception of Mr John Bruton was that he would never push things so far, but there is greater faith in Mr Ahern and people around him to move things forward.

Meanwhile, Drumcree overshadows everything. Dr Mo Mowlam has been making very public efforts to resolve the situation. On the nationalist side there is a fair degree of cynicism about this weekend's proximity talks in Hillsborough Castle and a suspicion that a decision to push the Orange march down the road has already been taken.

Such a move would not enhance the prospects of a ceasefire. It would reinforce suspicions and scepticism about Perfidious Albion, even in its New Labour manifestation. It would not make Mr Adams's selling job any easier.

Nobody expects a ceasefire before the Drumcree parade scheduled for July 6th. The republican debate is unlikely to conclude before then. If the guns go silent it is more likely to happen in the second half of July, in time for the end of July deadline set by the two governments.

Senior political sources say the decision is in the balance. Against its scepticism of British intentions, the republican movement must balance the hard political reality that another chance like this may not come along for a decade or more.

Fingers are tightly crossed on the unionist side as well. Mr David Trimble has taken the gamble of his political life in the past week by refusing to denounce the decommissioning initiative, seeking instead to harden up the proposals and put Sinn Fein on the spot.

Already the DUP and the UKUP are snapping at his heels. The world is watching to see if Mr Trimble can hold his nerve, as he did over the chairmanship of the talks last year. There is a strong school of thought that this man, above all others, holds the key to peace in his hands.

Seasoned observers believe that, once Sinn Fein is inside the gates of Castle Buildings and sitting down face to face with the unionists, the decommissioning issue will come to be seen in a different perspective. For one thing, if the shooting has stopped, there will be a reduction in the pressure to hand over arms in advance of a settlement.

Republicans are said to be putting great store by the statement of the two governments in the preamble to the decommissioning document that "they share the view in the report that voluntary and mutual decommissioning can be achieved only in the context of progress in comprehensive and inclusive political negotiations".

That sentence sounded the death knell of the Washington 3 "arms before talks" precondition and unlocked the gates of Stormont, should the republican movement wish to enter.

Meanwhile, the IRA campaign has not been called off and we must be constantly alive to the possibility of further violence.

John Hume has warned again that if there is no ceasefire then the other parties should move on without Sinn Fein. However, SDLP sources are reasonably encouraged by this week's events. Although shocking actions may still take place on the streets of Northern Ireland, hopes of peace remain alive.