Why has gangland gun crime plummeted in Ireland?

Gerry Hutch must wait until next month for the Special Criminal Court verdict that will decide whether he walks free from jail, or spends most of the rest of his days behind bars for his alleged role in the Regency Hotel attack that killed David Byrne (33).

But while the Dubliner’s life is on hold, the Irish underworld has moved on in the years since the daring hotel ambush in February 2016, by gunmen dressed in mock Garda uniforms and armed with AK-47s.

Gun crime, often a national scandal as it reached runaway levels at times in our recent history, has plummeted. And it has fallen to the extent that so-called gangland is almost unrecognisable.

Gardaí believe the large anti-gang clampdown that followed the Regency Hotel attack – specifically the investigations into the Kinahan side of the Kinahan-Hutch feud – has taken a hardcore of contract killers out of circulation because they are now in prison for feud-related crimes.

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The theory goes, in garda circles, that the Irish gangland scene is so small – in international comparative terms – that there was only ever a relatively limited number of men in Ireland who were willing to shoot people dead for money. The same sources say that once a group of them was taken out of circulation at the same time, it is no surprise gun killings have reduced.

Some gardaí also believe other gangs have been deterred from serious gun crime after witnessing the Kinahan cartel’s murder spree and its consequences. Its spateof killings, after the Regency, brought on so much gardaí attention that its Irish operation was wiped out by relentless garda raids, arrests, seizures and convictions.

So what exactly is the scale of gun crime at present? And how does it compare to those periods in our recent past when feuding, and other forms of gun crime, peaked?

Last year, there were five gangland gun murders in the Republic and two in 2021. This compares to 21 such killings in 2016

The problem of gun crime – fatal and not fatal shootings, possession of a firearm and discharge of a firearm – has gone through two peaks in the last three decades. In the final years of the Celtic Tiger – from around 2005 to 2008 – the drugs trade boomed, as did the gun crime that accompanies it. And in again in 2016, when the Kinahan-Hutch feud erupted, the Republic experienced a second peak in gun crime.

However, figures obtained by The Irish Times from the Health Service Executive show in 2021 a total of 10 “gun assault” victims were treated for injuries in hospitals in the Republic. That compared with a peak of 59 in 2005 and 25 as recently as 2019.

Last year, there were five gangland gun murders in the Republic and two in 2021. This compares to 21 such killings in 2016. The number of gangland fatal shootings also exceeded 20 cases per year at times during the latter years of the Celtic Tiger period.

Furthermore, in 2007, some 331 cases of illegal discharge of a firearm were recorded, the peak of the modern era. That had fallen to 74 cases by 2021 and 59 such incidents were recorded in the first nine months of last year. In 2008, there were 452 cases of illegal possession of a firearm but by 2021 that had fallen to 171 cases. In the first nine months of last year, there were 144 cases.

While cocaine had arrived on Irish shores long before the boom times, cannabis and heroin were always the mainstays of the drugs trade

So what is going on? Why was gun crime such a huge problem before? And what has it reduced so significantly now?

Garda sources said the period from the very late 1990s until the end of the Celtic Tiger period was unique in Irish organised crime. When the economy boomed, the cocaine trade increased exponentially. In a newly-prosperous country, with unprecedented levels of disposable income, the soaring demand for cocaine was matched by the ability of hundreds of thousands of users to pay for the drug.

While cocaine had arrived on Irish shores long before the boom times, cannabis and heroin were always the mainstays of the drugs trade. Cannabis was the biggest part of the market, but it was low-margin. And while heroin was much higher-margin, meaning larger profits for drugs gangs, the user base was very small.

But when the economy took off in the late 1990s and the cocaine trade with it, drugs gangs finally had a mass consumption product, like cannabis, with high margins of heroin. The drugs trade suddenly found itself in need of a much bigger workforce to keep pace with demand for cocaine.

That resulted in thousands of young men – and boys – bypassing a traditional criminal apprenticeship in minor crimes like organised burglaries and jumping straight into the drugs trade. By the 2000s, many of those boys and young men had formed their own gangs, with leading figures in their early 20s.

In the years between around 2010 and 2016, when the Kinahan-Hutch feud began, gangland crime was somewhat calmer than in the Celtic Tiger decade and the couple of years immediately following

They grew wealthy quickly and had access to firearms, via the same wholesalers they sourced their drugs from. Because they were young, had not served a traditional crime apprenticeship and were often using cocaine themselves, their actions were much more hotheaded and volatile than the gang leaders of previous decades, who were generally older by the time they reached senior underworld positions.

And that heady cocktail of youth, wealth, power, guns and cocaine gave rise to a very unpredictable gangland scene: one where these young gang leaders and their associates became embroiled in entrenched feuding with their enemies, often over personal matters.

That gave rise to a period of intense gun violence on the streets for about a decade, through the Celtic Tiger years and out the other side. There were savage gun feuds in Limerick, and in the Dublin suburbs of Crumlin, Drimnagh, Finglas, Coolock and Blanchardstown, among others. In some of those feuds, the body count ran well into double figures: 16 dead in the Crumlin-Drimnagh feud, up to 20 murders linked to the Limerick feud and the Finglas-based gang leader Eamon Dunne linked to as many as 17 murders.

However, when one side emerged victorious from the Crumlin-Drimnagh feud, the killings stopped. In that case, the rival gang leader – Brian Rattigan – was jailed for the murder, later reduced to manslaughter, which effectively started the feud proper.

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A combination of his imprisonment and so many of his associates being murdered by the rival gang, gave such a clear victory in the feud to that rival group the dispute ended. The victorious gang, once led by Freddie Thompson, then went on to become the Liam Byrne organised crime group, named in the High Court as the trusted cell in Ireland of the Kinahan cartel.

Similarly, when the leaders of the McCarthy-Dundon gang in Limerick were jailed, that feud stopped. And when Finglas gang leader Eamon Dunne was shot dead in April 2010, the murders being carried out by his gang stopped overnight.

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A pattern is clear to see here. Since the late 1990s, when modern-day Irish gangland was born, a relatively small group of very influential gang leaders has directed a large proportion of our gun killings. And, in many cases, when those men have been either jailed or shot dead, the murders in their areas have come to a halt. Others step into their shoes to assume control of their drugs business. But those replacement gang leaders mostly do not demonstrate the same propensity – or perhaps capability – for directing a wave of gun murders. Indeed, they often want a calmer environment so they can focus on making money.

In the years between around 2010 and 2016, when the Kinahan-Hutch feud began, gangland crime was somewhat calmer than in the Celtic Tiger decade and the couple of years immediately following. There were some feuds and men were shot dead. But those feuds were smaller and more contained than the unprecedented cocaine wars of the Celtic Tiger boom years.

However, all of that would soon change. Dubliner Gary Hutch was a member of the Kinahan cartel, though his relationship with its leadership – specifically Daniel Kinahan – began to unravel. This resulted in Hutch trying to kill Kinahan, though that effort was unsuccessful. And in September 2015, Hutch was shot dead in Spain; a revenge attack for trying to kill Kinahan. Almost six months later in Dublin, at a boxing tournament weigh-in at the Regency Hotel, an effort was made by Gary Hutch’s associates to avenge his death by murdering Kinahan.

Garda sources said the period from the very late 1990s until the end of the Celtic Tiger period was unique in Irish organised crime

Once again, Kinahan escaped with his life, though one of his Dublin-based associates, David Byrne, was shot dead on the day. His killing effectively began the Kinahan-Hutch feud on Irish soil. And in the short period to the end of 2018, the number of men killed in that feud reached 18.

However, by that point the gardaí had begun to get on top of the main players. There were successive multimillion-euro seizures of the Kinahans’ cash and drugs. The Criminal Assets Bureau seized the Crumlin home of Liam Byrne while his associates also had assets – including houses – seized in the same action. That forced Byrne, the leader of the gang that ran the Kinahans’ operation in Ireland, to flee to the UK.

But, crucially, many of the murders carried out as part of the Kinahan-Hutch feud were solved and the perpetrators jailed. Other men working for the Kinahan cartel were jailed for conspiracy to murder, drug or firearm possession, money laundering and aiding or directing a crime gang. In the years since the Regency attack, more than 50 men linked to the cartel were jailed for periods of between a few years and life.

John O’Driscoll was the Garda Assistant Commissioner in charge of all of the anti-gangland units in the force during that period. He told The Irish Times the collapse in gun killings was directly related to the Irish operation of the Kinahan cartel being wiped out since the Regency shooting.

“I have always said there was a limited number of these people who will kill for reward, and a number of operations in particular saw hit squads being caught as they were going to try and murder someone,” he said. He added that the jailing of high-value targets had clearly helped reduced serious gun crime.

He is also convinced that when other gangs in the Republic saw the way the garda was dismantling the cartel’s Irish operation, they were inclined to keep their heads down and certainly not engage in gun killings that attracted such significant garda attention. But he also warns that some of the Kinahans’ associates jailed (for shorter terms) in recent years are now already starting to be released at the expiry of their sentences. He says the pressure must be kept on them, insisting there is no room for complacency even if gun crime has collapsed in the Republic.