Watch out for `no-revaluation' regions

"There will be no devaluation." Probably the most overused line since "there was no relationship". And means about as much

"There will be no devaluation." Probably the most overused line since "there was no relationship". And means about as much. The graffiti was on the wall for the Russian rouble since last week, but since devaluation would have been seen as giving in to the old bogey of "speculators" nobody wanted it to happen.

The Prime Minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, was quoted as saying that the panic in Russian markets was "psychological" and there's no doubt that panic is, by its nature, contagious. But it isn't psychological when your meagre savings are in a bank that is unable to meet its commitments and are losing value with every passing second.

The unfortunate effect of the devaluation on the Russians themselves will be felt almost immediately in rising prices, since over half their consumer goods are imported. Politically, it's a double-edged sword for both President Boris Yeltsin and Mr Kiriyenko. And political instability is even more of a worry for a country which is relying on still greater handouts from the G7 nations and the IMF (which rejected a request for more financial aid before the devaluation).

US Treasury Secretary, Robert Rubin, in commenting on the situation, remarked that both the US and the world had a great stake in Russian economic reformation and said that it was "critically important" that they restored confidence. It's just that the treatment for Russia's almost terminal illness is nearly as damaging as the disease.

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Of course, part of the problem for the Russians is that they need to increase their levels of tax collection to help fund reforms and meet debt payments (the 90-day moratorium for payments on international loans was glossed over early in the week). However, the tax system in itself needs reformation. The burden is so great that many companies don't bother to pay any taxes and companies that do tend to go out of business.

Anatoly Chubais, Russia's chief negotiator, said that they would "definitely welcome" additional international aid but he didn't expect the IMF to hurry up with another tranche of loans.

And so "there will be no devaluation" has turned into "an adequate and timely response to the extremely difficult financial situation which was threatening the economic and political stability of the country".

The other part of the timely response was for one of the Kremlin's economic aides, Alexander Livshits, to resign while the Central Bank chairman, Sergei Dubinin, was asked to resign. And poor Boris - despite his categorical assurances to the contrary - was forced to come back from his holidays.

The ratings agencies (radical as always) administered the coup de grace by cutting Russia's credit ratings.

Russian debt is still a mess - 10-year bonds were yielding around 27 per cent on Monday and, attractive as the yield sounds, there's always the possibility (hopefully, remote) of not being repaid. As my old maths teacher said to me when I asked if I could boost my results by doing maths through Irish, 10 per cent of nothing is nothing, and a yield of 27 per cent while notionally wonderful in this era of low-yields doesn't stack up if you don't actually get any cash.

With Russia having been giving a good going over, the attention must turn to those other "there-will-be-no-devaluation" regions - China and Hong Kong. The Hong Kong government intervened in the stock market last Friday in what was a very radical move, described by Donald Tsang, the Financial Secretary, as "a surgical correction to deal with a temporary attack". I hate to break it to Donald, but he's not in an episode of ER. These attacks are never temporary. They may ebb and flow, but - when he's least expecting it - someone is going to have a go at Hong Kong.

Buying shares is an unusual move, and most people will want to know when the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will sell them. How temporary is temporary in this case?

Interestingly, analysts in Hong Kong were confident on Sunday that the Chinese yuan wouldn't be devalued this year, but they hedged their bets by predicting that it would be devalued sometime over the next five years. You see - you have to be there for the long haul! Who said that this was a short-term business?

Anyway, the net result of all this activity is to leave the markets looking like a dirty blue dress spinning around frantically in a washing machine. Very fortunately, Bill Clinton's woes are being looked at more in sorrow than in anger by the financial markets. Or should that be more in amusement than in passion? I can't help feeling a little sorry for Bill who should have had more sense than to allow a nubile young woman to prance around the Oval Office and do whatever it was that Monica was doing but, there you go, men are never known for their good sense. I couldn't care less what Bill and Monica were at, but it seems faintly ridiculous that, in denying that he did anything - which must be the first instinct of any man caught offside - Bill's second term as president of the Goldilocks economy is turning into something more like Hammer House of Horror than Happily Ever After.

And I feel sorry for Hillary. I know that she has been the woman that most of America has loved to hate, but it can't be easy walking across the White House Lawns hand in hand with the man who makes Viagra look like the most unnecessary drug on the planet.

Anyway, there are much weightier matters than Bill's love life, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Russia, Australia and just about everywhere else to keep market participants on their toes over the next months.

A burning issue which will take up acres of newsprint and TV time. A question that can't be easily answered. Will the forecasters be proved right in the end? Is it a marathon or a sprint? How will they cope with the ups and downs of the next few months - and who will be the best analysts around to point the market in the right direction?

In short - who will win the FA Premiership this season?

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers