Economists have become so used to being disappointed by the US jobs market that it must have been something of a shock yesterday when an almost unalloyed piece of good news came along.
However, the job growth in October and the upwardly revised number for September fell a little short of cruising speed for the labour market. But behind the 126,000 figure for growth in payroll jobs, there were signs that the jobs market may be on the turn.
As the note of caution from administration officials made clear, the jobs market is lagging behind the rest of the economy. Growth of 126,000 jobs was probably not quite enough to keep pace with the trend growth in the labour force: economists estimate it takes around 150,000 jobs a month to absorb new entrants to the labour market.
Companies are still somewhat reluctant to translate a rise in order books into more hiring - 126,000 jobs a month hardly squares up to the extraordinary 7.2 per cent annualised rate of economic growth over the summer, or even the 4 per cent growth that many economists predict for the fourth quarter.
But the signs of stronger increases ahead are clear. Both hiring of temporary workers and the length of the average work week, which are widely regarded as a precursor to hiring ahead and have been weak for much of the year, increased. With the labour market apparently on the turn, many economists expect hiring to accelerate.
Professional and business jobs rose by 43,000 in October, and education and health services by 56,000. - (Financial Times Service)