At the resort of Vouliagmeni, outside Athens, the wind howled, and rain poured outside the five-star Astir Palace Hotel where EU finance ministers were meeting at the weekend. But nothing could dampen the spirits of the ministers, writes Denis Staunton in Athens.
"We managed to keep the storms outside the meeting room," Greek finance minister, Mr Nikos Christodoulakis, said as the meeting broke up.
On the face of it, the ministers have no more reason to be cheerful than do the millions of European citizens whose public finances they manage. The European Commission is expected tomorrow to cut its 2003 growth forecast for the euro zone from 1.8 per cent to just 1 per cent. And the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Mr Pedro Solbes, warned in Athens that prolonged war in Iraq could drive the euro zone into recession.
The Commission expects France to run a budget deficit of 3.7 per cent this year and predicts Germany will also breach the limit laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact. Germany's finance minister, Mr Hans Eichel, believes he can stay below the 3 per cent limit if the euro-zone economy grows by 1 per cent. But he admitted that, if growth was lower, Germany could breach the pact for the second year running.
Even our own ebullient Mr McCreevy, acknowledged that Ireland's high inflation rate could threaten our competitiveness and drive investment abroad.
The ministers' sunny exterior owes much to their conviction that the greatest threat to growth is a lack of consumer and investor confidence. They were determined to say nothing to undermine confidence and worked hard to accentuate the positive.
They made much of their success in persuading Mr Wim Duisenberg to stay on as ECB president until his likely successor, Mr Jean-Claude Trichet, disposes of a court case alleging that he had a role in a banking scandal a decade ago. Behind the scenes, however, some officials acknowledged that Mr Duisenberg's obliging turn may not be enough to avert a crisis over the succession at the ECB.
Even if Mr Trichet is acquitted on June 18th, prosecutors can appeal, triggering a new legal process that could last up to two years. France believes that, if Mr Trichet cannot be appointed ECB president, the job must go to another Frenchman.
But officials in some EU governments are questioning whether Mr Duisenberg's successor must be French. If Mr Trichet cannot take up the post, they say, it should go to the best alternative candidate, regardless of nationality.
Pairs could face other difficulties in securing the job for its favoured alternative to Mr Trichet - the former ECB vice-president, Mr Christian Noyer. Some legal experts claim that to give Mr Noyer a second term in the ECB's executive council would breach the EU treaty that established economic and monetary union.
Mr Duisenberg is said to have no desire to stay in his job until his eight-year term ends in 2006. But, as they left Athens, some ministers must have suspected that they will be listening to Mr Duisenberg's pithy, gnomic pronouncements for some time to come.
