Bank of England deserves plaudits for 'honest' monetary policy

London Briefing : Is the Bank of England the best central bank in the world? I never thought I'd catch myself saying this, but…

London Briefing: Is the Bank of England the best central bank in the world? I never thought I'd catch myself saying this, but the latest set of minutes of the monthly meeting of the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) make for fascinating reading, writes Chris Johns.

Mr Mervyn King, the new governor, has a self-styled reputation for being one of the most boring men on the planet but he is currently presiding over one of the most fascinating monetary experiments that we have seen. And anyone who can refer, no matter how obliquely, to the ECB as a bunch of "inflation nutters" can't be all bad.

To read the media - and market - commentary on the minutes, it would seem that the only thing of note was the split decision in favour of not raising rates. The decision by four members of the MPC to vote to hike rates is widely seen as a precursor to a November rise. While it is understandable that this should hog all the limelight, there is much else in the minutes to catch the eye.

First, and perhaps foremost, there is a remarkable degree of honesty. For example, the committee is clearly tying itself in knots over the state of the housing market.

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Contrary to what was expected, the property market is showing signs of life again. Whether or not this should bother a central bank charged with hitting an inflation target for retail - not house - prices is a moot point. That it is an even thornier issue is revealed when the Bank openly admits that it really doesn't have a clue about the "equilibrium" level of house prices.

The MPC states that prices remain above their "previously estimated" equilibrium level, but that equilibrium level "may have risen" since it was last calculated.

If the Bank knows what the equilibrium, or correct, level of house prices is, it is to be congratulated. Property is exactly like the equity market: lots of analysts running around with fiercely complicated valuation models, few of the answers bearing any resemblance to each other, and all of them incredibly sensitive to the assumptions underlying the analysis.

When the FTSE 100 was hovering around 3,300, the chief investment officer of one of the UK's largest fund managers said to me that his calculation of fair value was a level of around 4,400, but this was hedged with all sorts of uncertainties.

He admitted that he had no idea how long it would take to get to 4,400 and it was perfectly possible that the market would visit 2,500 along the way. This, in reverse, is exactly what the Bank is saying about the housing market - it thinks it might be over-priced, it could get even more expensive, and there may well be several generations of new governors before we see "fair value" restored.

Such honesty is to be commended.

Normally, we see estimates of correct asset values that reek of spurious precision and an assumption that we are likely to hit fair value tomorrow with all sorts of disastrous consequences.

Two other features of the minutes are worth noting. First, the amount of space devoted to the outlook for the US economy is an explicit recognition of what really matters for the UK economy. When rates were last cut, the MPC was worried about the US. Now, it is not. Hence, one reason for the change of heart over interest rates.

Second, there are several reminders of how hopeless economic data can often be.

There have been huge revisions to the UK's National Accounts in recent months. Proper account has now been taken for the effects of VAT fraud.

Additionally, there have been the usual benchmark revisions which always take place at this time of year, along with a change to the way in which several series are calculated.

The upshot of all of this is that the UK economy has been growing faster for longer than the MPC - or anybody else - previously realised. And growth looks to have been slightly better balanced, with more capital investment taking place than first indicated.

There have been both demand and supply sides developments, so it's not all bad news for interest rates. However, the net effect is definitely to nudge the MPC towards an early tightening.

So, rates are going up. We know roughly (if not exactly) when and why. It is hard to argue with the logic of slightly higher rates. Such consensus and transparency is unusual, not to say unique.

Arguably, the UK now has the best central bank in the world.