The ramifications of the US and Israel’s war on Iran are pretty well known at this stage, whether it is factories standing idle because fuel is so expensive or sharply more expensive prices at the pumps.
But it is becoming increasingly clear that, for certain sectors, the issue is becoming less about high prices and more about the availability of fuel at all.
Ryanair told Bloomberg News on Wednesday that it has been guaranteed jet fuel until around mid-May by its suppliers. Virgin Atlantic has indicated similar guarantees.
“If the Iran war finishes soon then supply will not be disrupted,” Ryanair spokeswoman Emer Igbokwe said. “If the closure of the Hormuz strait continues into May or June, then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”
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That is not to say that the fuel will definitely run out in six weeks, far from it. But it does indicate that the question of secure supplies of jet fuel is now a real issue.
Just last week the Financial Times reported that European airports face shortages of the aviation fuel within three weeks. A letter from airport industry group ACI Europe to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas warned he should closely monitor the issue in the weeks ahead.
“If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the letter is reported to have said.
It seems clear this problem won’t be going away any time soon.
Even when it does, it seems certain that travellers will be paying higher prices for the privilege of taking a summer getaway this year, with additional costs being baked into airfares. And that is before dealing with potentially higher prices at hotels and restaurants, which will in turn be grappling with higher electricity prices.
There is no sign that summer holidays are going to be cancelled, but there are signals they will cost a pretty penny in 2026.
